Toss the coin – What are the odds of an imminent recession?
Well thank goodness for that. We’ve made it past the end of June, and in doing so completed a half year that no investor is likely to want repeated. There have been some brighter spots – the commodity and oil-rich UK stock market has done better than most – but if you’ve kept your head…
Investing “Talk to me Goose”
Slavish adherence to being ‘data driven’ should not be an excuse for avoiding thinking and intuition. The past decade has been vastly more abnormal than normal in the wider lens of history. Using this decade as the basis for future investment settings looks unwise to us. When Maverick clutches the dog tags and whispers the…
Keeping the ESG revolution moving
In the heightened tensions of the current geopolitical environment, the debate around sustainable investing has intensified. On the ground, our 2022 ESG Analyst Survey provides signs of how companies are making progress, but much more needs to be done. Fidelity’s 2022 survey of analysts on sustainability issues comes at a delicate moment. Sustainable investing has…
Can investors bring improved health and wellness to emerging markets?
Impact investing: companies providing health and wellness products and services can make a positive impact on people in emerging markets. Impact investing incorporates dual goals of generating positive contributions to society and the planet, as well as attractive financial returns. We believe this is achieved by investing in the shares of companies which, as well…
Targeted online ads are the success of ‘surveillance capitalism’
But display ads face privacy and regulatory challenges that reduce their effectiveness. In 2007, Jonathan Trenn of the US bought a diamond ring from Overstock.com so as to propose to his girlfriend in a few months’ time on New Year’s Eve. Within hours of buying the ring, Trenn received a “shocking call” from a friend…
US markets in bear territory – misfortune or opportunity?
What we think about the price of an asset largely reflects whether we are a buyer or a seller of it. Most of us don’t have barrels of crude lying around but we do need to put fuel in our cars. We’re naturally inclined, therefore, to think the oil price is too high. On the…
Getting home with a soft landing
Faced with the current spate of delays and cancellations, most of us would accept any kind of landing – hard, soft, skidding to a halt – just get us home, please. For the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks, however, easing the inflationary economy onto the runway safely and comfortably is all that matters….
Fed delivery sees hard landing risk rising
The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered on hints that it would raise rates by 75bp, reiterating a commitment to bring down inflation. We see increased risks of a hard landing and remain cautious on equities and credit. What Happened? At today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed hiked Fed fund rates by another 75bp, thus…
Inflation vs growth: what matters more to investors?
High inflation is on everyone’s mind, but perhaps growth should be more concerning when taking investment decisions. It is true that to understand the present and face the future, we need to first understand the past. We have talked at length about the current inflation risks and, ultimately, stagflation scenarios and what this all means…
Are value stocks cyclical or defensive?
Investors may need to rethink their preconceptions about value investing. So far this year US value stocks have outperformed their growth counterparts by a whopping 21% (as at 24 May). But what’s behind the rotation? It can partly be explained by the huge spike in bond yields, which has seen the 10-year US Treasury yield…
