Ampol shares (ASX: ALD) fell 6.22% to A$39.32 today, the fourth consecutive red day that saw a break below the much watched A$40 level. The ALD share price continues to trade 22.42% higher YTD, yet this latest phase of selling has seen the stock break below the near term 30 day and 50 day moving averages in a test of momentum.
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The selling looks like a reassessment of what lies ahead, after Ampol’s Lytton Refiner Margin jumped to US$23.92 a barrel in the September quarter, up 125% from US$10.64 a year earlier, and margins across the first nine months of 2026 averaged US$27.05, more than triple the prior corresponding period. Yet market attention has fixed on the refinery itself after inspections of the fluid catalytic cracking unit uncovered the need for further refractory repairs, the restart has been pushed to mid-November, and fourth-quarter production of higher-value fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is now expected to come in roughly 150 million liters below earlier forecasts.
Yesterday’s trading update was strong on headlines, as group replacement cost operating profit improved on the second-half 2025 quarterly average, total fuel sales volumes rose 3.6% to 6.245 billion liters, international volumes climbed 23%, and convenience retail fuel volumes jumped 45%, helped by the EG Australia acquisition.
Lytton produced 1.137 billion liters in the quarter, down 9.2% on a year ago because of the turnaround work. Management framed the deeper maintenance program as reliability-enhancing, said customer fuel supply should not be affected, and kept capital expenditure guidance unchanged even as commissioning of the Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels project slipped to the first quarter of 2027.
What Lay Ahead?
Looking to the analyst community, and the average price target at A$44.47, suggests upside of more than 10% from here, and around A$1 below the 52 week high. The technical setup has shifted a little however, with Ampol breaking below the lower edge of their 20-day trading band near A$42.32, with 20-day volatility up more than 50% on its prior reading. Trend-strength measures are rising, consistent with a young downtrend rather than a one-day move, with A$38.50, and then the rising 200 day at A$35.52 the next major support lines in the sand.
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From here, the mid-November restart of the cracking unit is the key checkpoint, where a return to service could prove supportive, assuming no guidance changes. Bulls will be eager to see buyers step in and regain the A$40 handle, but with the RSI down at 30.9m and near term momentum slipping away, there could be further tests of support from here.
Bull Case:
- Refining margins more than doubled, with nine-month margins more than triple last year.
- International and convenience retail volume growth offsets softer domestic wholesale demand.
- Deeper maintenance now should improve Lytton reliability and supply security through 2027.
Bear Case:
- Extended cracking unit outage cuts fourth-quarter high-value fuel output by 150 million liters.
- Shares broke below their recent range as volatility spikes and downtrend builds.
- Margin tailwinds could fade quickly if Middle East supply tensions ease.
