There are tentative signs that WiseTech Global shares (ASX: WTC) are turning a corner after one of the most punishing selloffs on the ASX this year. The WiseTech share price rounded out last week at A$33.63, a 4.25% daily gain that shifted the week positive, up 0.6%.
Despite it’s second consecutive week of gains (however modest), the stock remains 50.94% lower since the turn of 2026, leaving more than a few questions about whether this recent price action is merely a pause in the downtrend, or early stages of a reversal. Or at least a partial one.
It may not like much on the 1 year chart above, but the session brought a test of the 30 day SMA at A$33.71 intraday, and also saw the RSI shift back to neutral at 50. The price action in WTC has been an interesting watch, where after a 31.1% pullback in the month leading in, WiseTech has since found some support, and added 7.34% in the past two weeks. The A$31 level has now held on multiple tests, a pattern that could be seen as demand absorption and base-building.
A strong weekly close above the 30-day SMA would be the first meaningful technical signal that near-term momentum may be shifting, with the 50-day SMA at A$36.67 representing the next logical upside target if that level gives way.
What Has Been Happening at WiseTech?
On the regulatory front, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission executed a search warrant at WiseTech’s headquarters as part of an investigation into competition and market conduct within the global logistics software sector. This has caused something of an overhang on the stock, which has been well covered.
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Looking instead at the financials, WiseTech’s most recent results are more mixed than the share price might have you believe. Revenue has expanded significantly to US$1.4 billion, driven by organic growth and the integration of major acquisitions including e2open, whilst operating cash flow surged to approximately A$564 million, a 29% increase, while free cash flow reached roughly A$410 million, up 43%. However, statutory net profit compressed due to higher financing costs, amortisation charges, and integration expenditure.
The integration of e2open has reportedly been delivering faster-than-anticipated EBITDA margin improvements, which management has highlighted as evidence that the acquisition thesis is playing out ahead of schedule. Simultaneously, WiseTech is executing a broader commercial model transition, shifting customers from traditional seat-based licensing toward transaction-driven pricing, while embedding artificial intelligence tools directly into the CargoWise platform.
A debate in the logistics sphere this week over WiseTech’s AI-linked charge plan has kept the stock in the spotlight, and it cuts both ways. Scrutiny of whether large forwarders will realise the labour savings needed to justify higher transactional fees flags genuine customer-acceptance risk, but it also underlines the pricing power bulls believe the new model can deliver.
What Lay Ahead
Looking to the analyst community, the average price target sits at A$60.47, implying 78% upside to today’s close, and whilst the technical setup looks like basing, it has not done so just yet, at least not conclusively. The share price remains below its 50-day moving average at 36.67, and the 50-day itself sits below the 200-day at 42.48. The ADX near 26 and falling suggests the prior downtrend is losing strength rather than reversing, which fits the shift from heavy one-way selling to more two-way trade.
Notably, the price pushed above the upper Bollinger Band at 33.32 against a tight band width of 6.49%, signalling a short-term range break that may be stretched in the near term. Yet the path to a full fundamental recovery will not be simple.
From a purely technical standpoint, the immediate question is whether WiseTech can hold and build above the A$33.71 30-day SMA in the week ahead. A clean breakout and weekly close above that level would represent the first concrete evidence that the balance of supply and demand is shifting in the stock’s favour after months of sustained selling. When the regulatory and governance clouds begin to clear, the gap between its operational quality and its market valuation may well make the current price look cheap, but there is plenty that could push this one the other way.
Bull Case:
- Consensus analyst Buy rating with price targets implying 70-80% fundamental upside.
- Operating cash flow surged 29% to A$564 million, demonstrating robust underlying business health.
- CargoWise’s network effects and switching costs create a deeply entrenched competitive moat.
- e2open integration delivering faster-than-expected EBITDA margin improvements ahead of schedule.
- Technical base forming at A$31 support, with RSI recovering to neutral 50 from oversold levels.
Bear Case:
- ACCC search warrant introduces material regulatory uncertainty and potential operational restrictions.
- Richard White governance overhang risks ongoing multiples compression and institutional hesitation.
- Statutory net profit compressed by financing costs, amortisation, and elevated integration expenditure.
- Transactional pricing transition adds near-term revenue complexity and extended capital expenditure cycle.
- Stock remains down over 50% year-to-date; technical recovery remains unconfirmed above key resistance.
