It has a contrasting 2026 for three particular ASX financial stocks so far, with Netwealth (ASX: NWL) and Hub24 shares (ASX: HUB) falling 33.95%, and 32.8% respectively to multi-year lows, whilst AMP shares (ASX: AMP) have added 31.69% to 8 year highs before recent consolidation. UBS has taken a view on the three, upgrading the two underperformers to Buy, whilst downgrading the outperformer to Neutral, with valuation a key point of focus.
Glancing at the 52 week range of each of the three, and the ratings look like a mean reversion call rather, where they are expected to meet a little closer in the middle as the year plays out. The forward P/E on AMP continues to make the stock look cheaper on a single metric, yet after more than doubling off the lows of March, some of the turnaround is beginning to be priced in.
The Call
For HUB24, the forward price-to-earnings multiple has collapsed from approximately 56 times to around 33 times, representing a roughly 30% discount to its five-year historical average. UBS has designated HUB24 as its preferred near-term pick within the specialty platform space, citing the company’s more defensive superannuation asset mix and a relatively stable margin outlook as key differentiators in the current environment.
The bank did trim its earnings per share forecasts for HUB24 by 3% to 4%, acknowledging that near-term platform flows will remain subdued as financial advisers continue redirecting client portfolios toward cash and term deposits in response to elevated bond yields.
Netwealth presents an even more compressed valuation on paper, trading at approximately 29 times forward earnings, a discount of around 40% to its own five-year average. However, UBS ranks it as the secondary near-term choice behind HUB24, noting that Netwealth’s client asset profile carries greater sensitivity to the ongoing shift into cash and defensive instruments.
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Earnings per share forecasts for Netwealth were cut by a slightly steeper 5% to 6%, reflecting this heightened exposure to near-term flow disruption.
AMP’s downgrade to Neutral tells a different story. The company has executed meaningfully on its turnaround strategy, with operational momentum in platform net flows and a strengthening contribution from its China partnership driving the share price to levels not seen since 2017. UBS acknowledges the quality of that execution but concludes that the key catalysts underpinning the recovery are now substantially priced in at current levels, limiting the asymmetric upside that made AMP an attractive contrarian position earlier in the year.
The story across these three ASX financial stocks this year is ultimately a tale of mean reversion in different directions, with HUB24 and Netwealth offering a potentially rare opportunity to buy quality platform franchises at multi-year valuation lows, even as AMP’s well-earned re-rating enters a more measured phase where the next leg of gains will need to be earned through continued delivery rather than sentiment recovery.
