Boeing shares (NYSE: BA) have been under pressure of late, down 19.4% since August 5, sliding to $193.56 as momentum shifted in recent weeks, seeing the $200 level broken for the first time in months. The decline accelerated sharply to start last week (Sep 28), when FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford announced a temporary freeze on MAX 10 certification proceedings after a software fault in GE Aerospace flight-management computers came to light, sending the stock down 6.91% on the day.
The subsequent FAA ruling on October 2, delivered by its Corrective Action Review Board, that the glitch does not constitute an unmanageable safety risk, provided meaningful relief and has markets reassessing whether the sub-$200 level represents an overshoot to the downside. Coming out in support of the stock, Jefferies stands behind its $265 price target even, reaffirming its Buy rating.
Recent Boeing Volatility
The software fault in question affects GE Aerospace flight-management computer versions 14 and 14.1 installed on the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10. The issue can disable automated vertical navigation during an aborted landing if the crew alters the planned flight path mid-approach, increasing pilot workload during what is already one of the more demanding phases of flight. Critically, however, the FAA determined that pilots retain full manual control of the aircraft throughout the event, which formed the basis of its decision not to condition certification on an immediate fix.
Rather than requiring a software update before the MAX 10 can be certified, the FAA indicated it will address the glitch through information bulletins and mandate a software update at a future date. That sequencing matters enormously for Boeing’s commercial timeline. The MAX 10 is Boeing’s largest narrow-body jet and carries a backlog of more than 1,500 orders, making its certification a cornerstone of the company’s financial recovery. The FAA’s approach now keeps year-end 2026 certification and first customer deliveries in 2027 firmly on the table.
The regulatory clarity also carries an important structural distinction: the fault originates with supplier GE Aerospace rather than Boeing’s core airframe design, a detail that has helped ease broader concerns about systemic engineering failures within Boeing’s own manufacturing processes.
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On the labor front, Boeing secured another piece of stability when the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace ratified a new four-year contract, averting a strike that would have directly threatened certification and engineering operations at a particularly sensitive moment. While the agreement will modestly increase Boeing’s fixed cost base over the contract period, markets have largely treated the resolution as a net positive given the operational continuity it provides.
The Street View
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu maintained her Buy rating and $265 price target following the FAA ruling, noting in a research note to clients that the determination allows the MAX 10 to be certified prior to year-end and that Jefferies expects the FAA will require certain software updates by a future date to address the glitch. At current levels, her target implies upside of approximately 37% from the $193.56 price, a gap that reflects both the scale of the recent sell-off and the long runway Boeing still faces before its financial recovery is fully reflected in the share price.
The stock remains down 15% on a YTD basis, sliding below the 30 day, 50, and 200 SMAs in recent weeks, as momentum shifts once again to the bear side. A move off the oversold RSI however, and a 5% bounce from Monday’s close into the weekend suggests there are buyers willing to step in below $200. This week could well shape what comes ahead as the final quarter develops.
