Ampol Shares Hit New Highs: Can the Refining Rally Run Further?

Ampol shares (ASX:ALD) continued to climb on Wednesday, adding 1.66% to A$42.91, and having hit a fresh all time high at A$43.10 intraday. This extends a run that has now seen holders add 33.59% since the turn of the year, with bulls boosted by the company’s earnings power after a first-half 2026 result that surprised on almost every measure that matters for a refiner.

The market is still digesting the scale of the earnings reset, with Ampol’s share price up 7.68% so far this week, even as oil prices fell back a little. Ampol reported replacement cost operating profit EBITDA, excluding significant items, of A$1.64 billion for the six months to June 30, up 152% from a year earlier. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose to A$857.2 million from A$180.2 million. Those are not incremental improvements. They represent a step-change in the earnings base, and step-changes tend to take several sessions to fully reprice.

The engine behind that result was the Lytton refinery in Queensland. RCOP EBIT at Lytton reached A$533.4 million for the half, compared with just A$1.1 million a year earlier. The Lytton Refiner Margin averaged US$28.26 per barrel across the period, with refinery production rising 8.7%. That kind of margin environment is not routine. It reflects a specific set of global supply conditions: ongoing disruption to Middle East shipping routes, including constraints around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, Russian diesel export delays, and historically low refined-product inventories across key markets. Ampol said those conditions remained supportive into August, with the Lytton Refiner Margin reaching US$27.11 per barrel in July and July earnings running ahead of the prior comparable period.

The international Fuels and Infrastructure segment added another layer to the story, contributing A$307.5 million in RCOP EBIT against A$2.8 million a year earlier. That swing underscores how much of Ampol’s earnings leverage sits in the trading and supply chain operations that benefit from volatile product flows, not just in the refinery itself. Australian Fuels and Infrastructure operations excluding Lytton also grew strongly, rising 123% to A$309.3 million.

The EG Australia acquisition, completed at the end of the reporting period, adds a retail and convenience dimension that broadens the earnings mix. Ampol expects A$65 million to A$80 million in annual synergies within two years, with benefits beginning to flow through results in fiscal 2027. The Convenience Retail division also improved organically, with RCOP EBIT up 12% to A$204.5 million, fuel volumes up 2.4%, and underlying shop sales rising 3.5%. The company also declared a fully franked interim dividend of A$1.85 per share, more than four times the prior-year payout, signaling confidence in the cash position despite net borrowings rising to A$3.52 billion partly on the acquisition cost.

The Setup

The average price target sits at A$41.08, which is now about 3.5% below today’s trading price, with the Street yet to catch up with market sentiment. The technical setup however is firmly behind the bulls, with the Ampol share price trading above its upper Bollinger Band, with the 14-period RSI at 72.2 and the CCI confirming that the price is stretched relative to recent history.

The 50-day moving average sits well below the current price and is itself above the 200-day average, a configuration that reflects a sustained move. A bullish MACD crossover on the most recent completed daily bar adds to the momentum picture, and the ADX reading, which is rising, suggests the trend still has structural support rather than showing early signs of exhaustion. Volatility has been rising alongside price, which is typical when a stock is making new highs but also means the daily range is wider than it was a month ago.

There will likely be further volatility ahead, with periods of price discovery notable for their swings. For now, the bulls are in charge here, and with oil prices moving slightly higher in US trading overnight, this will be one to watch.