Nio shares are looking to breakout from a range that has held since late last year. A 15.38% bounce during yesterday’s sessions pushed Nio’s share price to $5.70, as investors cheering the company’s first quarterly operating profit and a string of upbeat analyst upgrades.
NIO’s fourth-quarter 2025 result beat expectations, with vehicle deliveries rising 71.7 per cent from a year earlier to 124,807 units. Total revenue climbed 75.9 per cent to RMB34.65 billion, while the company posted an operating profit of RMB807.3 million, a key milestone for a business that has long been under pressure to prove it can generate sustainable returns.
Profitability was helped by stronger margins, with vehicle margin lifting to 18.1 per cent from 13.1 per cent a year earlier. The improvement suggests NIO is gaining better operating leverage and benefiting from a product mix skewed towards higher-priced models.
Broker upgrades added to the momentum. Nomura lifted its rating on NIO to Buy from Neutral and set a US$6.60 price target, saying the company’s business and financial performance had improved over the past two quarters. The broker expects deliveries to grow at a compound annual rate of 25 per cent from 2025 to 2028.
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That follows recent positive calls from UBS, JPMorgan and Bank of America, pointing to broader market confidence that NIO may be turning a corner after years of heavy spending and margin pressure.
The bigger test from here will be whether NIO can keep growing without sacrificing profitability. For Australian investors watching offshore EV opportunities, the company’s latest result highlights both the upside in a successful turnaround story and the risks tied to China’s intensely competitive car market. As a first step, bulls will be looking for the break above $5.50 to hold, with the shares 2.8% lower in the pre-market session at $5.54.
