18 Share Tips – 29th September 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week Niv Dagan of Peak Asset Management, Toby Grimm of Baker Young and Arthur Garipoli of Seneca Financial Solutions share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice.  These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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Niv Dagan, Peak Asset Management

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Stavely Minerals (SVY)

This copper and gold explorer is focusing on its 100 per cent owned Stavely project in western Victoria, which hosts the high grade Cayley Lode copper-gold-silver discovery. SVY appeals given a quality copper-gold resource, multiple high grade gold targets delivering consistent results and a substantial drilling calendar. A fully funded exploration program follows a recent $1.9 million capital raising. We expect significant re-rating potential as additional assays and drilling results are delivered.

BUY – Eclipse Metals (EPM)

This exploration company is primarily focused on unlocking critical minerals via projects in Greenland. The Gronnedal project hosts an inferred mineral resource estimate of 89 million tonnes at a grade of 6363 parts per million total rare earth oxides (TREO). On September 4, the company announced it had secured renewing a key Greenland licence to 2027, paving a path to a mining licence. In Australia, Eclipse holds an extensive critical mineral exploration portfolio. We view EPM as an appealing buying opportunity given a globally significant rare earths resource, clear permitting pathway and strong metallurgical characteristics. Multiple near term catalysts include drilling results, mineral updates and potential strategic project recognition.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Locksley Resources (LKY)

Locksley Resources is a US focused critical minerals explorer advancing its flagship Mojave project in California, which hosts the Desert Antimony project and El Campo Rare Earth prospect. The project is strategically located given it’s only 1.4 kilometres from the only operating rare earths mine in the US. The company has recently doubled its landholding and entered into a non-binding heads of agreement with EV Resources (ASX: EVR). It involves Locksley buying EVR’s antimony material via an ore sales agreement. The shares have risen from 22 cents on September 9 to trade to 48 cents on September 25. We retain a hold recommendation as some profit taking could occur in response to the rapid share price rise.

HOLD – Livium (LIT)

Livium is an Australian clean energy materials company focused on battery recycling, resource recovery and enabling circular economy solutions. Livium’s wholly owned subsidiary Envirostream operates Australia’s leading lithium-ion battery recycling business. The company is also advancing the commercialisation of its patented lithium extraction technology via an equal joint venture with Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN). Strategic partnerships position Livium to capture value from the fast-growing circular economy and secure domestic supply of critical materials.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – CSL (CSL)

CSL has announced a major transformation program, including the planned demerger of its influenza vaccines business Seqirus, a 15 per cent reduction in its workforce and between $US700 million and $US770 million in pre-tax restructuring costs in fiscal year 2026. These changes are designed to simplify operations and deliver more than $US500 million in annual cost savings during the next three years. But executing the transformation program carries risk. In our view, near term upside is limited in response to restructuring costs and investor uncertainty surrounding the Seqirus demerger. The shares plunged following the release of full year 2025 results and strategic initiatives. The shares have fallen from $271.32 on August 18 to trade at $196.53 on September 25.

While Niv Dagan has listed CSL as a ‘Hold’, Toby Grimm has listed CSL as a ‘Sell’. Each analysts views are their own and they do not always agree with each other.

SELL – Santos (STO)

Shares in this energy giant were heavily sold off after the $US30 billion takeover bid from the XRG Consortium was withdrawn just days before the expected decision date, sending the stock down more than 11 per cent in a single session on September 18, 2025. This outcome removes a key near-term re-rating catalyst and puts Santos management under pressure to demonstrate how it will deliver shareholder value. We believe investor sentiment may remain weak as the market digests the failed transaction and re-focuses on execution risk at the Barossa LNG project and Pikka Phase 1 development.

Toby Grimm, Baker Young

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Orica (ORI)

The world’s largest commercial explosives manufacturer recently delivered an encouraging business update. It revealed continuing strong demand amid increasing penetration of its digital solutions business. This should help drive higher revenue and earnings growth in full year 2025. Given record gold prices and growing potential for a rebound in coal, we see demand for Orica’s products from key mining customers well supported into 2026. A strong balance sheet and profit growth should underpin share price upside and leave scope to increase capital returns beyond its dividend yield and $400 million share buy-back program.

BUY – Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

Woodside remains Australia’s leading oil and gas producer with quality assets and strong growth options. Production of 99.2 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first half of fiscal year 2025 was up 11 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Operating revenue rose 10 per cent year-on-year to $6.590 billion. Softening crude oil prices should curb global investment, and support LNG prices into the next decade. Certainty on the long term future of the North West Shelf leaves the company trading at a significant discount to our valuation. Recently trading on a dividend yield above 7 per cent also provides an appealing entry level. 

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – CSL (CSL)

We view the pronounced decline in CSL’s share price following the release of full year 2025 results in August as an over-reaction. The scale of restructuring costs was a surprise, and we expect more selective contracting will reduce revenue in coming years. However, improving margins will likely support underlying earnings growth. We believe uncertainty created by the unexpected demerger of its influenza vaccines business added to the share price decline. However, a simplified business will enable CSL to focus on its core strengths in blood plasma.

While Toby Grimm has listed CSL as a ‘Hold’, Niv Dagan has listed CSL as a ‘Sell’. Each analysts views are their own and they do not always agree with each other.

HOLD – Iluka Resources (ILU)

Iluka is a mineral sands producer. It recently announced it would suspend production activities at the company’s Cataby mine and Synthetic Rutile Kiln 2 (SR2) in Western Australia from December 1.  Subdued demand for mineral sands and their associated downstream products, particularly pigment, was behind the decision. While disappointing, we continue to see an eventual recovery in demand, which will provide upside over the longer term. In the meantime, the company’s decision to suspend production will help balance supply, support prices and free up cash from inventory as it advances its Eneabba rare earths project.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Supply Network (SNL)

The heavy commercial vehicle parts distributor has delivered impressive growth in recent years, building a competitive advantage in scale within a structurally attractive industry. However, we believe the market may be overestimating the company’s ability to maintain current growth rates and view the shares as overvalued in the medium to longer term.

SELL – Boss Energy (BOE)

This uranium producer owns 100 per cent of the Honeymoon project in South Australia and 30 per cent of the Alta Mesa project in the US. The company generated total revenue of $75.596 million in fiscal year 2025, its first full financial year of production. It reported a net loss after tax of $34.168 million, primarily driven by non-cash impacts. A review on the Honeymoon project’s resource base and development costs may weigh on the share price until results are released later this year. The shares have fallen from $4.48 on July 1 to trade at $2.06 on September 25. We see more attractive risk/reward opportunities elsewhere in the sector.

Arthur Garipoli, Seneca Financial Solutions

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – EROAD (ERD)

EROAD is a transport analytics company, providing fleet telematics software and hardware across New Zealand, Australia and the US. Of major significance to the company is the New Zealand Government planning to transition all vehicles to an electronic road user charging system (eRUC), replacing the fuel excise currently charged on petrol. This combats an increasing uptake in electric and hybrid vehicles and ensures all road users contribute to the cost of maintaining and improving New Zealand’s transport network. ERD has a dominant market share of eRUC in New Zealand and has first mover advantage. We believe regulatory tailwinds will generate continuing growth for this stock.

BUY – Amcor PLC (AMC)

Amcor is a global packaging company. Earnings before interest and tax in the quarter ending June 30, 2025, missed consensus on lower volumes in North America. Weaker demand for rigid and flexible packaging amid higher costs were contributing factors. Amcor is continuing to focus on extracting synergies from the recent acquisition of the Berry Global business and divesting non-core assets. Amcor has a good history of generating synergies. The market reacted harshly to the earnings miss, which, in our view, has created a buying opportunity for a stock with a brighter outlook. 

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Emeco Holdings (EHL)

Emeco Holdings leases mining equipment and provides maintenance services in Australia. In full year 2025, EHL delivered a result that marginally exceeded expectations, driven by higher margins in its core business, improving contract management and an uplift in fleet utilisation. The company guided to modest earnings growth and is now generating free cash flow levels that could result in capital returns to shareholders in the next 12 months. Recently, the company confirmed it had discussions with potential suitors after receiving unsolicited interest. No formal offer had been announced at September 25. Watch this space.

HOLD – Vault Minerals (VAU)

Vault is a West Australian gold miner that produced about 380,000 ounces in full year 2025. Investors responded positively after the company released its full year result on August 21. Vault’s hedge book means it’s been selling gold at a discount to the spot price, which has continued to move higher. Consequently, the VAU share price has lagged peers. As restrictive hedges expire during the next 12 months, VAU’s cheap valuation will become more obvious to investors as shown by management recently implementing a buy-back of up to 10 per cent of issued shares. This is despite weaker gold production guidance in fiscal year 2026.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Wesfarmers (WES)

This diversified retailer owns the Bunnings hardware giant, Kmart Group and Officeworks, among other businesses. The company recently reported earnings in line with market expectations for most businesses. The company also revealed its retail divisions had delivered a solid start to fiscal year 2026 in response to improving customer demand and lower interest rates. While the company is performing well, we believe it may be time to trim holdings as the stock was recently trading on a lofty price/earnings ratio of about 36 times and remains overvalued at this stage of the cycle. 

SELL – Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

This fund manager invests in global equities. Operating profit of $159.7 million in fiscal year 2025 was up 5 per cent on the prior corresponding period. However, statutory net profit after tax of $165 million was down 31 per cent. We see downside risks to consensus in response to lower associate profits, higher sub-advisory fees and lower distribution income. We also see risks to upside in regard to potential outflows. The shares have risen from $6.45 on April 7 to trade at $9.62 on September 25. Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains.

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