Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips: our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.
This week Damien Nguyen of Morgans, Jonathan Tacadena of MPC Markets, and Remo Greco of Sanlam Private Wealth share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.
Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice. These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.
Damien Nguyen, Morgans
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY – BHP Group (BHP)
BHP offers exposure to a portfolio of high quality mining assets and remains well positioned to benefit from long term demand for copper and other critical minerals. A strong operating performance, healthy cash generation and a disciplined approach to capital allocation continue to support the investment case. While iron ore remains important, increasing copper exposure provides leverage to electrification and decarbonisation trends. BHP appeals for potential capital growth, income and for diversified resources exposure. The company posted an attributable profit of $US9.8 billion in full year 2026, up 9 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Revenue of $US58.8 billion was up 15 per cent. BHP recently declared a final fully franked dividend of US99 cents a share.
BUY – CSL Limited (CSL)
CSL is a global healthcare leader with strong competitive advantages across plasma therapies, vaccines and specialty medicines. Demand for its products remain largely independent of economic conditions. In our view, the latest full year result in 2026 is generating confidence that repeated earnings downgrades are behind CSL. With defensive earnings, global market leadership and attractive long term growth prospects, we view CSL as an appealing investment opportunity.
HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS
HOLD – Macquarie Group (MQG)
Macquarie benefits from a diversified global business spanning asset management, infrastructure, commodities and investment markets. Earnings momentum has improved as transaction activity and market conditions have stabilised, while long term growth opportunities remain attractive. However, a stronger share price and a cyclical earnings profile suggest much of the recovery is already reflected in its valuation. We view the stock as fairly valued and maintain a hold recommendation. The shares have risen from $196.47 on March 3 to trade at $251.01 on August 27.
HOLD – Rio Tinto (RIO)
Rio Tinto continues to generate strong cash flow from its world class iron ore operations, while building exposure to copper and lithium. The company maintains a robust balance sheet and offers attractive shareholder returns, supported by low cost assets. However, iron ore remains the primary earnings driver, leaving profits exposed to movements in commodity prices and Chinese demand. Given this balance of quality and cyclical risk, we see Rio Tinto as fairly valued at recent levels.
SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
SELL – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
The CBA continues to deliver resilient earnings, strong capital levels and industry leading returns, reinforcing its position as Australia’s premier banking franchise. However, the earnings growth outlook remains relatively modest as intense competition and margin pressure possibly weigh on profitability. Despite these headwinds, the stock trades at a significant premium to its peers and historical valuations. With limited scope for earnings upgrades, we believe the share price leaves little room for disappointment.
SELL – APA Group (APA)
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This energy infrastructure business provides investors with stable, regulated cash flows and a defensive earnings profile. Total revenue was down 6.3 per cent in full year 2026, but profit after tax was up 81.4 per cent. Balance sheet leverage is significant, in our view, and funding costs can be a challenging headwind. The market is concerned about the shift away from gas may create uncertainty about future demand in the longer term. Although APA is pursuing energy transition opportunities, we believe these are unlikely to materially improve earnings in the near term. We believe investors can find better risk-adjusted opportunities elsewhere.
Jonathan Tacadena, MPC Markets
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY – Advanced Engineered Materials (AEM)
AEM produces high purity alumina (HPA) and has production facilities in Quebec, Canada. HPA is a specialised form of aluminium oxide, which is a critical input for a range of commercial applications, including electronics, semi-conductors and lithium-ion batteries. The Quebec plant operates a patented low-cost process and is expanding production. AEM continued to increase production in the first half of 2026 and unaudited revenue was up 85 per cent on the prior corresponding period. In our view, the stock is trading at a discount and offers good value.
BUY – Greatland Resources (GGP)
GGP is a gold and copper producer. The company produced 329,000 ounces of gold in full year 2026, comfortably beating guidance. All in sustaining costs were also below guidance. It held cash of $1.289 billion at June 30 and had no debt. It has full upside exposure to the gold price via put options. A reserve upgrade at the Telfer mine in Western Australia is also encouraging. The company is enjoying favourable momentum.
HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS
HOLD – Goodman Group (GMG)
Goodman Group is a global industrial property and data centre developer. It delivered an operating profit of $2.675 billion in full year 2026, up 15.7 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Data centres drove work in progress to $19.7 billion across 50 projects in 12 countries. Property investment income of $722.1 million was up 7 per cent. Occupancy remained high at 95.6 per cent. The company is targeting earnings per share growth of 9 per cent in full year 2027. Earnings momentum and management quality justify holding the position.
HOLD – Challenger (CGF)
Australia’s largest annuities provider delivered a strong result in full year 2026. Statutory net profit after tax of $506 million was up 163 per cent. Annuity sales of $6.2 billion were up 19 per cent. It delivered a normalised return on equity of 11.6 per cent. The full year ordinary dividend of 31.5 cents, fully franked, was up 7 per cent. The share buy-back was upsized to $450 million. The shares have performed strongly since March. Hold for the buy-back and yield, and perhaps consider adding on any weakness.
SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
SELL – PEXA Group (PXA)
PEXA operates a leading digital property platform and settles most transactions in Australia. It also operates in the UK. A concern is a weaker housing market in Australia impacting PXA’s performance moving forward. In Australia, a draft report proposes about a 20 per cent reduction in PXA’s regulated revenue requirement via reductions to certain transfer transaction fees over a year. The independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) in New South Wales is reviewing electronic lodgement network operator (ELNO) service fees. PEXA has submitted formal objections to the IPART draft proposal. The shares have fallen significantly since March and still remain under pressure.
SELL – Australian Finance Group (AFG)
This mortgage broking group reported net profit after tax of $49 million in full year 2026, up 39 per cent on the prior corresponding period. AFG grew its network to more than 4300 brokers. While profit growth looks good on paper, the company faces a difficult operating backdrop, in our view. Australia’s property market is slumping, and the major banks recently confirmed residential mortgage applications had been significantly falling since the Federal Government’s budget in May. AFG’s earnings momentum appears difficult to sustain moving forward. The valuation should be pricing in rising volume risk, not last year’s growth. We see more downside than upside.
Remo Greco, Sanlam Private Wealth
BUY RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY – Kina Securities (KSL)
KSL is Papua New Guinea’s second largest commercial bank and financial services company. It’s also PNG’s biggest wealth management business. Substantial resource development is driving strong lending growth. The bank’s strong capital base is poised to generate growth and increase its market share. In July, the company forecast net profit after tax to increase between 15 per cent and 20 per cent for the financial year ending December 31, 2026. KSL’s dividend yield is also appealing as it was recently trading above 7.5 per cent.
BUY – Dexus (DXS)
Dexus is a fully integrated Australasian real estate group. It also operates a funds management business. Statutory net profit after tax of $482.2 million in full year 2026 was up from $136.1 million in the previous year. Adjusted funds from operations was steady at $483.9 million. The Dexus office portfolio retained high occupancy at 95.7 per cent. Occupancy at the Dexus industrial portfolio was 94.6 per cent. The share price was recently trading at a discount to net tangible assets. However, the underlying assets remain high quality. We believe the stock offers value at these levels.
HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS
HOLD – Origin Energy (ORG)
This major electricity retailer posted a statutory profit of $1.574 billion in full year 2026, up from $1.481 billion in the prior corresponding period. Adjusted free cash flow increased by $867 million to $2.074 billion, driven by strong cash flow from energy markets and Australia Pacific LNG. The company is supported by a strong balance sheet, enabling it to deliver consistent returns to share holders. The company was recently trading on an appealing dividend yield above 5 per cent.
HOLD – Amcor PLC (AMC)
The global packaging giant delivered a solid fourth quarter result in fiscal year 2026. Earnings before interest and tax of $US836 million and earnings per share of $US1.23 were above expectations. Net sales for full year 2026 of $US23.5 billion were up 57 per cent, largely driven by the Berry Global acquisition. The company expects to capture more synergies from the Berry Global acquisition, providing potential for growth.
SELL RECOMMENDATIONS
SELL – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
This leading Australian bank posted cash net profit after tax of $10.982 billion in full year 2026, up 7 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Revenue from ordinary activities of $30.153 billion was up 7 per cent. Investors are concerned about slowing housing credit growth. Home loan applications fell about 15 per cent since the federal budget in May and the company’s full year result in August. Mortgage competition remains elevated. Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains until a clearer picture emerges about the state of Australia’s housing market, the outlook for interest rates and the broader outlook for credit growth moving forward.
SELL – Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT)
MXT is a non-bank corporate lender and alternative asset manager. It specialises in fixed income, private credit, equity and capital markets. The trust allocates capital across corporate loans and other income producing assets to pay its investors a regular income. Our concern is a weakening economy operating under the weight of persistent inflation, stubbornly high interest rates and recent tax changes announced in the federal budget that could penalise capital growth. The company’s listed price can be volatile.
The above recommendations are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors are advised to seek their own professional advice before investing. Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
