18 Share Tips – 22nd December 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week Angus Geddes of Fat Prophets, Christopher Watt of Bell Potter Securities and Jed Richards of Shaw and Partners share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice. These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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Angus Geddes, Fat Prophets

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Rio Tinto (RIO)

The global miner recently hit record highs, supported by stronger copper and iron ore prices. Further, we see the market embracing chief executive Simon Trott’s stronger, sharper, simpler strategy announced in early December. The strategy is credible, with a path to modest volume growth and cost savings. Rio has the scope to unlock up to $10 billion in capital from non core assets. We have an above-consensus view on iron ore and remain bullish about copper given structural demand tailwinds and curtailed supplies. Rio offers a blend of defensive yield and future facing commodities upside at a moderate valuation. 

BUY – James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX)

We believe this building products stock is deeply undervalued for investors who can hold through the cycle. The stock has fallen from $54.83 on January 21 to trade at $29.97 on December 18. The controversial AZEK acquisition shows signs of outperforming, with synergies tracking ahead of schedule. The US faces a structural deficit of 4 million homes, positioning JHX to benefit as interest rates ease amid pent-up demand. JHX has pricing power and sufficient liquidity, so we believe current share price levels provide patient investors with an attractive entry point. 

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – HUB24 (HUB)

HUB24 operates an investment and superannuation platform. HUB continues to lead in net inflows, taking share from competitors in a market that’s underpinned by powerful structural growth. The company reported record quarterly net inflows of $5.2 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, up 28 per cent on the prior corresponding period. HUB enjoys high adviser satisfaction scores and has established a good track record of successfully migrating large client books to bolster already impressive organic growth. While the valuation is stretched, HUB is a compounder that we expect will grow into its valuation over time. 

HOLD – SRG Global (SRG)

SRG operates a diversified infrastructure services business. In late November, the company announced it had secured $650 million in contract wins in Australia and New Zealand. Contracts were secured in sectors, including water, defence, transport, energy, industrial, resources, health and education. The contract wins de-risk upcoming financial targets and provide encouraging signs in validating the potential of the Total AMS acquisition, a marine infrastructure business. The Total AMS acquisition was undertaken at an attractive price and aligns with SRG’s tilt towards high quality, recurring revenue. The company is well-managed. Nevertheless, after a strong upward run, some consolidation wouldn’t be surprising. 

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

TPW is an online furniture and homewares retailer. TPW is a well managed business. Revenue growth of 18 per cent between July 1 and November 20 was strong in isolation. However, the percentage rise missed market consensus, triggering a sharp correction. The shares have fallen from $20.44 on November 25, the day prior to the update, to trade at $12.405 on December 18. Despite the share price plunge amid modest support from a share buy-back, we believe the valuation remains lofty and margins are likely to face more pressure from intensifying competition.  

SELL – Metcash (MTS)

Metcash is a wholesale distribution and marketing company involved in food, liquor and hardware.  Reported profit after tax of $142.2 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026 was up 0.3 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Group earnings before interest and tax of $240.2 million was down 2.4 per cent. Tobacco sales have plunged during the past few years. The core IGA business is up against fierce competition from major supermarkets. Margins could be pressured. We can’t identify sufficient catalysts for a near-term recovery. The shares have fallen from $4.23 on September 1 to trade at $3.29 on December 18. We believe there are better opportunities to deploy capital elsewhere.

Christopher Watt, Bell Potter Securities

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Woolworths Group (WOW)

After a challenging period marked by margin pressure and earnings downgrades, Woolworths is showing early signs of stabilisation. Recent trading updates indicate improving momentum in core divisions, particularly Australian Food and B2B (Business-to-Business), suggesting the worst may be behind WOW. Given the supermarket giant generates solid cash flow, WOW stands out among consumer staples. As market sentiment improves, so too should investor confidence in the group’s earnings outlook.

BUY – Select Harvests (SHV)

Select Harvests has delivered a solid recovery, supported by a rebound in almond prices and healthy crop volumes. The business has significantly strengthened its balance sheet, halving net debt and returning to strong cash flow generation. Management commentary points to further upside through operational efficiencies and potential processing volume growth. Given rising global demand for almonds and favourable export trends, SHV is poised to benefit from cyclical tailwinds and internal margin improvement initiatives. This remains a compelling agribusiness story in recovery mode.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – DroneShield (DRO)

The company provides artificial intelligence based platforms for protection against advanced threats, such as drones and autonomous systems. It recently secured another major international contract and boasts a growing sales pipeline in excess of $2.5 billion. However, while the business fundamentals are sound, investor sentiment has been clouded by governance concerns, including recent DRO share sales by directors and scrutiny over disclosure practices. These issues may create short term headwinds, but we believe the company remains structurally well positioned in the fast evolving counter drone and electronic warfare space.

HOLD – Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

This global wine giant owns the premium Penfolds brand, among other labels. The share price recently plunged after TWE downgraded earnings. The company now expects earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to range between $225 million and $235 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026. Prior EBIT consensus was $334 million. The company is taking action to restore channel distribution and is actively reducing inventory levels across China and the United States. The shares have fallen from $7.88 on July 1 to trade at $4.80 on December 18. TWE has a strategy, but a recovery will take time. At these price levels, patient investors can hold as the transition towards luxury wine remains a long term positive. The stock carries calculated risk, so investors should continue to monitor news developments.  

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – PLS Group (PLS)

Formerly Pilbara Minerals, this lithium miner’s operational performance remains sound. Despite a strong balance sheet and long term tailwinds from electric vehicles and energy storage, lithium supplies exceed demand in the short term and overshadow any catalysts. The recent share price rally has run stronger than most sharemarket experts expected, with the stock still pricing in a cyclical rebound. Downside risk remains if lithium prices stay lower for longer.

SELL – QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

This insurance giant has recently delivered a strong performance, which included solid returns on equity and a disciplined underwriting approach. However, forward looking conditions appear more mixed. Premium growth is moderating, and rising claims costs in a higher inflation environment may start to erode margins. Also, in our view, the stock’s re-rating during the past year potentially limits upside. Most of the good news has been priced into the stock, so investors may want to consider cashing in some gains. 

Jed Richards, Shaw and Partners

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Macquarie Group (MQG)

This diversified financial services group is actively advancing strategic plays. The company’s asset management division has lodged a $11.6 billion takeover bid for Qube Holdings, a provider of integrated import and export logistics, at $5.20 a share. MQG recently sold its United States and European public asset management business to Nomura, a financial services group. MQG has increased its interim dividend and extended its buy-back program. Despite a softer profit phase, core earnings remain resilient, reinforcing our buy recommendation.

BUY – Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

Company operations include pathology, radiology, laboratory medicine, general practice medicine and corporate medical services. The company has operations in Australasia, Europe and North America. Revenue of $9.645 billion in fiscal year 2025 was up 8 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Net profit of $514 million was up 7 per cent. The company is expecting strong earnings per share growth in fiscal year 2026. Global scale and dividend yield supports our buy recommendation. The shares have risen from $20.89 on November 18 to trade at $22.55 on December 18.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Wesfarmers (WES)

This industrial conglomerate has a strong portfolio of businesses. Several brands include hardware giant Bunnings Group, Kmart Group, Officeworks and Wesfarmers Health. Net profit after tax of $2.926 billion in fiscal year 2025 was up 14.4 per cent on the prior corresponding period. The company also declared a special dividend, reflecting strong capital management and profits. However, it cautioned investors on continuing cost pressures across its retail and industrial divisions. Given income strengths balanced by margin risks, we retain a hold recommendation.

HOLD – Medibank Private (MPL)

MPL is a private health insurer. Medibank Private has entered into an agreement to acquire Better Medical, for about $159 million, highlighting its pivot into health services. The acquisition brings a network of 61 GP and medical clinics to MPL from Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The company has  also strengthened governance and leadership after appointing new non-executive directors. MPL generated group revenue from external customers of $8.604 billion in fiscal year 2025, an increase of 5.2 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Underlying net profit after tax of $618.7 million was up 8.5 per cent. The fully franked dividend of 18 cents in fiscal year 2025 was up 8.4 per cent.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

Group premium rate increases of about 1.5 per cent in the nine months to September 30 were modestly below the first half result in 2025, driven mostly by commercial lines. The company expects gross written premium growth to be in the mid single digits in full year 2025. The $450 million buy-back plan is appealing. However, in our view, pricing headwinds, fierce competition and exposure to catastrophes impact the visible earnings outlook and signals caution. The share price remains under pressure. The shares have fallen from $21.51 on October 16 to trade at $19.76 on December 18. Investors may want to consider cashing in some gains amid monitoring developments.

SELL – Suncorp Group (SUN)

The insurer announced it had received more than 10,000 claims by November 26 in response to recent severe storms in New South Wales and Queensland. The net cost to Suncorp is expected to be about $350 million, according to earlier terms of assessment. About 5000 claims related to motor damage and a further 5000 claims involved homes. Frequent buy-back updates don’t offset insurance risk exposure. The shares have fallen from $21.82 on August 22 to trade at $17.505 on December 18.   

The above recommendations are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Investors are advised to seek their own professional advice before investing. Please note that TheBull.com.au simply publishes broker recommendations on this page. The publication of these recommendations does not in any way constitute a recommendation on the part of TheBull.com.au. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.