Walmart (NYSE: WMT) Earnings Preview

As of November 11, 2025, Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is trading at $102.42, a slight dip of -0.19 USD from its previous close. Investors are keenly watching the retail giant as it prepares to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report on November 20, 2025. The current price positions the stock at approximately 78.8% of its 52-week range, which spans from $81.79 to $109.03.

Walmart Prepares to Release Q4 2025 Earnings

The anticipation surrounding Walmart’s earnings is fueled by a number of factors. On one hand, the company’s stock has demonstrated impressive growth, outpacing the S&P 500 with a 15% year-to-date increase. This surge is attributed to robust comparable sales, a resurgence in discretionary spending, and the expansion of high-margin alternative revenue streams, notably advertising and third-party fulfillment.

Analysts are generally optimistic. Consensus estimates point towards earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 on revenue of $180.2 billion. Piper analysts have even revised their Q4 comparable sales estimate for Walmart U.S. upwards, from 2.5% to 4.5%, citing strong holiday sales momentum. This paints a picture of a company firing on all cylinders.

Walmart’s advertising business is a key driver of this optimism. Its remarkable 28% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 is expected to continue, potentially contributing a significant portion of Walmart’s total EBIT growth. The expansion of the third-party marketplace is also expected to create a synergistic effect, further boosting advertising and supplier revenue streams.

However, beneath the surface of positive headlines lies a more nuanced reality. While revenue is projected to increase by 4%, analysts also anticipate a year-over-year decline of 12% in EPS and 6% in operating income. This divergence raises questions about Walmart’s ability to translate top-line growth into bottom-line profitability.

Furthermore, Walmart’s valuation has significantly expanded. The stock is trading at 33-35 times expected fiscal 2026-2028 EPS, with an expected earnings growth rate of 11% over the next three years. Its price-to-sales ratio has recently surpassed 1x, after remaining below that level for 89 consecutive quarters. The stock’s P/E multiple has also risen sharply, from 25x in fiscal Q1 2024 to 41x based on Q4 expectations. This elevated valuation leaves little room for error and increases the pressure on Walmart to deliver exceptional results.

The Contrarian View

While the consensus is largely bullish, a closer look suggests a potential for disappointment. The anticipated decline in EPS and operating income cannot be ignored, despite revenue growth. The market may be overly optimistic, pricing in continued growth at rates that may be unsustainable. Furthermore, the reliance on advertising revenue, while promising, could introduce volatility and dependence on external factors. The expansion of the third-party marketplace, while beneficial, also brings increased complexity and potential risks related to quality control and brand reputation. Could Walmart be stretched too thin, chasing growth in too many directions? A more conservative approach might be warranted, focusing on core retail operations and cost efficiencies.

Adding to the complexity is the broader economic outlook. While discretionary spending has shown signs of improvement, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain. Inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and potential economic slowdowns could all dampen consumer spending and negatively impact Walmart’s performance.

Looking Ahead

Investors will be closely scrutinizing Walmart’s fiscal 2025 guidance and the performance of its advertising and e-commerce segments. The company’s ability to navigate the evolving retail landscape, manage costs effectively, and maintain its competitive edge will be crucial in determining its future success.

Walmart’s beta of 0.6 indicates lower volatility compared to the broader market, which can be attractive to risk-averse investors. However, the current stock price being below the 50-day SMA ($103.04) suggests potential short-term bearishness, while remaining above the 200-day SMA ($97.65) indicates a longer-term bullish trend. This mixed signal underscores the need for careful analysis and a balanced perspective.

Walmart Analyst Summary

Ultimately, Walmart’s upcoming earnings report will provide critical insights into the company’s current performance and future prospects. Investors should carefully consider the various factors at play, including the company’s growth strategy, valuation, and the broader economic environment, before making any investment decisions. The next quarter (January 2026) estimated EPS of $0.72, representing a 9.09% year-over-year increase, and fiscal Year Ending January 2026 projected EPS of $2.60, a 3.59% increase from the prior year both suggest slow but steady growth, but the market may be expecting more from the giant of retail. The fiscal Year Ending January 2027 projected EPS of $2.93, indicating a 12.69% growth, will depend on key execution in the next 12 months. The average price target is $115, which may prove difficult to achieve depending on the next earnings report.