SpaceX has publicly filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, targeting a June Nasdaq debut that would mark the largest initial public offering in history at a projected $1.75–2 trillion valuation.
Even though SpaceX shares do not yet trade publicly, the filing has sent ripples through related markets in the lead up, also impacting related names in the industry. Institutional holders including Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, which recently marked its SpaceX stake at a $1.25 trillion valuation as of March 31, 2026, stand to benefit from the step-up to IPO pricing. The company plans to list on Nasdaq and a parallel “Nasdaq Texas” exchange under ticker symbol SPCX, with first-day trading expected in late June following an early-month roadshow. The $75 billion capital raise would dwarf previous record-holder Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion offering in 2019.
The IPO Filing
The S-1 filing provides the first comprehensive look at SpaceX’s financial performance, revealing a company generating substantial revenue but burning cash to fund ambitious expansion plans.
For the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX reported revenue of approximately $4.69 billion, representing 15 percent year-over-year growth from just over $4 billion in the same period of 2025. However, the quarter also produced an operating loss of roughly $1.94 billion, underscoring the capital-intensive nature of the business.
For the full year 2025, SpaceX highlighted adjusted EBITDA of approximately $6.6 billion, a non-GAAP metric the company emphasizes to demonstrate underlying cash-generating capability once research and development intensity normalizes. The filing notes that SpaceX spent roughly $3 billion on Starship R&D alone during 2025, with the xAI merger reportedly driving around 60 percent of total capital expenditure for the year.
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The business now spans four major segments.
Launch services through Falcon and Starship rockets continue to anchor operations, while Starlink has scaled to approximately 9,600 deployed satellites serving 10.3 million subscribers globally. Defense and government contracts account for an estimated 35 percent of revenue, with NASA, the Department of Defense, and the National Reconnaissance Office among major customers. The fourth pillar, AI and compute infrastructure, emerged from SpaceX’s early-2026 merger with Elon Musk’s xAI at a deal valuation that pegged SpaceX at roughly $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion. The combined entity now operates the Colossus supercomputer cluster in Memphis, featuring more than 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs, with Anthropic already announced as a major third-party customer.
SpaceX’s S-1 pegs its total addressable market at approximately $28.5 trillion, spanning $370 billion in space-enabled solutions, $1.6 trillion in connectivity including $870 billion for Starlink broadband and $740 billion for Starlink mobile, plus additional enterprise, government, and AI data-center opportunities. The figure, roughly equivalent to US gross domestic product, has drawn immediate scrutiny from market observers who note that S-1 TAM projections are historically optimistic.
Structure
The filing confirms that Elon Musk holds 93.6 percent of SpaceX’s Class B stock, which carries 10 votes per share, granting him more than 85 percent of combined voting power even after the public offering. This dual-class structure will permanently entrench founder control, limiting independent shareholder influence over strategy, mergers and acquisitions, or succession planning. The S-1 explicitly highlights the company’s dependence on Musk and notes that regulatory and procurement outcomes are sensitive to which political party controls the US presidency and Congress.
In an unusual move for a mega-cap offering, SpaceX plans to allocate roughly 30 percent of IPO shares to retail investors and will host approximately 1,500 retail participants at a post-roadshow event, framing the deal as a “people’s IPO” in the style of previous Musk ventures.
What To Expect
The SpaceX IPO arrives at a complex moment for growth-stage technology offerings.
Bulls point to the company’s unique position as the dominant commercial launch provider, a scaled global broadband operator, and an emerging AI infrastructure player with deep government relationships. The $6.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2025 suggests the business can generate substantial cash flow once capital intensity moderates, while double-digit revenue growth at nearly $19 billion annualized run-rate validates commercial viability across multiple segments.
Bears counter that a $1.75–2 trillion valuation against ongoing GAAP losses and multi-billion-dollar quarterly cash burn invites unfavourable comparisons to past speculative peaks. The capital requirements of simultaneously operating rockets, a global ISP, AI infrastructure, and defense contracts create execution risk, while Musk’s overwhelming control and the politically sensitive nature of government contracts introduce governance and key-man concerns. The xAI integration, consuming the majority of 2025 capex, raises questions about whether the IPO partly serves as a financing vehicle for a high-risk AI buildout rather than a mature space business.
Markets will also be closely watching the roadshow for pricing guidance, lockup terms, and any governance concessions that might address institutional concerns. Index inclusion appears likely given the scale, which could provide structural demand support, with Nasdaq inclusion rules recently changing, and likely to require fund buying to track the index.
Bull Case:
- Unique multi-segment platform combining launch, global broadband, defense, and AI infrastructure assets
- Adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion demonstrates strong underlying profitability once capex normalizes
- Embedded in critical US space and defense infrastructure with high switching costs
- Massive $28.5 trillion TAM provides decades-long growth runway across multiple verticals
- Likely heavy index and ETF inclusion creates structural demand for shares
Bear Case:
- $1.75–2 trillion valuation against $1.94 billion quarterly operating losses invites multiple compression
- Extreme founder control with 85% voting power limits governance and increases key-man risk
- Capital-intensive operations across rockets, ISP, and AI require sustained heavy investment
- 35% government revenue concentration creates political and regulatory cycle exposure risk
- xAI merger consuming 60% of capex raises concerns about financing unproven AI bets