The US Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates soon if the world’s largest economy continues on its current path, a voting member of the Fed said Tuesday.
The remarks by Eric Rosengren, head of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, came two weeks before the central bank is due to hold its next policy meeting.
Should steady growth, strong consumer spending, low inflation and wage increases persist, “then in my view no immediate policy action would be required,” Rosengren said in a prepared speech.
Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to cut rates later this month for the second time this year as recession indicators begin to flash red and the global economy slows amid President Donald Trump’s grinding trade wars.
Last month, Rosengren and Kansas City Fed President Esther George were outvoted by fellow members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which cut interest rates for the first time in a decade.
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In his speech, Rosengren said that, while risks for the US economy were rising, “to date, these elevated risks have not become reality.”
Unemployment is low, GDP growth remains steady around two percent and inflation is below the Fed’s target, Rosengren noted.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade wars had hit stock prices and was weighing more heavily on other, more trade-dependent economies in Asia and Europe, according to Rosengren.
The inversion of the so-called yield curve — a widely cited recession indicator that has generated alarming headlines in recent weeks — was likely less frightening than it looked, he added.
US Treasurys may have become increasingly attractive to foreign investors as the rest of the global economy slows, helping drive down yields, according to Rosengren.
“As a result, this is a particularly good time to carefully watch incoming data to determine whether any policy adjustments are necessary,” he said.