CANBERRA, AAP – At the 2022 election Anthony Albanese would win 12 seats from the Liberals and secure a majority with more than 80 MPs in the House of Representatives, the latest Newspoll analysis shows.
A previous quarterly Newspoll analysis in July for The Australian suggested Mr Albanese would pick up nine seats from the Coalition, including two electorates held by cabinet ministers – Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Queensland and Ken Wyatt’s seat of Hasluck in Western Australia.
It also showed Labor on track to win the West Australian seat of Pearce being vacated by former attorney-general Christian Porter.
The results of the latest quarterly Newspoll analysis show Labor has increased its advantage, and the number of seats it would win from the Coalition has lifted from nine to 12 based on the state two-party preferred swings.
The analysis suggests that Victoria will have the smallest swing to Labor.
The 4.78 per cent swing to Labor in NSW since the last federal poll would see Mr Albanese gain the seats of Reid and Robertson, which are held by the Liberals on margins of 3.18 and 4.24 per cent respectively.
In Victoria, a 2.86 per cent swing to Labor would see it also pick up the Liberal seat of Chisholm, held by Gladys Liu on a wafer-thin margin of 0.5 per cent.
In Tasmania, assuming the national swing to Labor of 4.53 per cent is replicated, Mr Albanese would win the battleground seats of Braddon and Bass, which are held by the Coalition government on margins of 3.09 per cent and 0.41 per cent respectively.
In Western Australia, Labor would win the seats of Swan, Pearce and Hasluck – held by the government on margins of 3.2, 5.2 and 5.9 per cent – and also pick up the seat of Tangney, held by Special Minister of State, Ben Morton.
The Newspoll analysis shows that in South Australia, Labor is on track to win the seat of Boothby, which is being vacated by Liberal MP Nicolle Flint.