WiseTech Global shares (ASX:WTC) began the week on the back foot, with shares closing 3.79% lower at A$36.26 on Monday as a broad retreat in ASX tech stocks added to concerns over decelerating growth. The decline extends a bruising fortnight for the stock, raising questions on whether its margin-expansion story can outweigh a slowing top line.
Monday’s fall outpaced an already weak sector, as the S&P/ASX Information Technology Index (XIJ) dropped 2.6% on the day to sit 11% lower over the past two weeks. WiseTech’s share price has amplified that move, shedding 20.26% over the same period.
The stock touched an intraday low of A$36.02, a level traders are likely to mark as short-term support for the week, after a firm rejection at the A$45 resistance zone and a subsequent failure to hold A$40. The shares are now 61.97% lower over the past 12 months, with the latest leg down following a 51.47% bounce in the month leading into 25 August, as momentum shifts.
What Is Driving WiseTech Global Shares?
The immediate catalyst for the renewed weakness was WiseTech’s full-year FY26 result. The company delivered record revenue and generated US$410.7 million in free cash flow, but net profit fell 11%, weighed down by integration expenses tied to its acquisition of e2open and associated restructuring costs. More consequentially for the share price, management guided to FY27 revenue growth of 6%–10%, a noticeable deceleration from the company’s historical trajectory and one that prompted an immediate reassessment by growth-focused holders.
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Offsetting that slowdown is a deliberate pivot toward profitability. Underlying EBITDA margins are forecast to expand from 46% in FY26 to between 49% and 51% in FY27, underpinned by US$115 million in annualized cost savings, of which US$64 million is expected to flow from the e2open integration. The company also pointed to embedded organic growth, with 61 global freight forwarders now under contract or in production on its flagship CargoWise platform, and customer retention that has remained above 99% for 14 consecutive years. Net leverage is expected to fall to roughly 2.2 times by the end of FY27.
Fundamentals, however, are competing with a heavy headline burden. Shares slumped between 11% and 13% in mid-August after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission executed search warrants in relation to the company, an action that reignited governance concerns that have swirled around founder and Executive Chairman Richard White.
WiseTech has moved to refresh its board and executive ranks in response, though the regulatory overhang remains unresolved. Layered on top is a shifting macro backdrop, with markets beginning to price in the possibility of an interest rate increase in September.
What Lay Ahead
The near-term picture will first be dictated by whether the A$36.02 intraday low holds as support. A decisive break would open the door to further downside, while any recovery would need to reclaim A$40 before challenging the A$45 resistance that capped the last rally. Then we have the interest rate outlook that is moving hawkish, with a September hike likely extending the repricing of high-multiple software names across the XIJ.
Bull Case:
- EBITDA margins forecast to expand from 46% to 49%–51% in FY27
- US$115 million in annualized cost savings supports earnings and balance-sheet deleveraging
- Customer retention above 99% and 61 contracted global freight forwarders underpin growth
Bear Case:
- FY27 revenue growth guidance of 6%–10% signals a sharp top-line deceleration
- ACCC investigation and lingering governance concerns keep institutional buyers sidelined
- Breakdown below A$40 support and rising rate expectations pressure high-multiple valuations
