Qantas Shares Building Momentum As Fuel Pressures Ease

Qantas shares (ASX: QAN) rallied sharply on Monday, breaking toward the psychologically important A$10 level as markets reassessed the airline’s earnings trajectory amid falling oil prices and improved demand visibility. Perhaps more importantly, QAN closed the day above the 200 day moving average of A$9.86, indicative of a bullish phase.

The Qantas share price closed out the first session of the week up 6.31% at A$9.94, closing at the high of the day and extending what has become a powerful month-long rally. The shares have now climbed 17.77% over the past 30 days, cutting its year-to-date loss to just 5.24%. Volume was notably solid at 8.27 million shares, 1.55 times the average daily turnover, suggesting broad participation rather than a thin technical bounce.

The move positions Qantas within striking distance of A$10, a round-number threshold that often attracts momentum traders and could trigger fresh buying if decisively breached.

Driving The Rebound at Qantas

The rally comes as markets continue to work through some positive developments for Australia’s flagship carrier. In April 2026, Qantas upgraded its second-half FY26 revenue guidance, projecting Group International unit revenue growth of 4–6% and Group Domestic growth of around 5%.

Management framed the revision as evidence of resilient travel demand despite ongoing macro and geopolitical headwinds, a narrative that has gained traction as subsequent data points have held up.

The upgrade followed a mixed February half-year result in which Qantas beat profit expectations but disappointed on full-year revenue guidance, triggering a sharp sell-off that left the stock more than 30% below its recent highs. That earlier weakness, driven largely by concerns over elevated fuel costs and capacity pressures, now appears to have set the stage for a relief rally as conditions have improved.

Fuel economics are central to the current momentum.

Qantas had flagged second-half fuel expenditure of A$3.1-3.3 billion, roughly A$600-800 million above the prior half, and responded by cutting domestic capacity by approximately 5% in the fourth quarter. However, with crude and jet fuel prices easing in recent weeks, the airline stands to benefit from lower input costs while potentially maintaining the higher fares justified during the price spike, thereby widening margins.

The company’s fleet modernisation program continues to deliver operational benefits. Management has highlighted that new, more fuel-efficient aircraft are structurally improving unit economics through reduced fuel burn and lower maintenance costs, while also enhancing the customer proposition. These efficiency gains underpin the bull case for margin expansion even as the carrier navigates a cyclical environment.

Yet the picture is not without complexity. The airline is also in the midst of capital-intensive projects, including preparations for operations at the new Western Sydney International Airport set to commence in late 2026, raising questions about execution risk and balance-sheet flexibility if conditions deteriorate.

Momentum that has been building in Qantas has continued into the new week, and close above the 200 day SMA of A$9.86 will have set off alerts on momentum traders’ platforms. Oil prices will no doubt have a say in what happens over the coming sessions, as further details of the US-Iran framework come to the fore, yet for now, there are the signs that a bullish phase may be about to take off.