PLS Shares Steady The Ship, To End Week 5% Lower

PLS shares (ASX: PLS) fell as much as 5.2% to an intraday low of A$4.93 today, before buyers stepped in over the last 90 minutes to bring the week to a close at A$5.09, down 2.12% on the day, and 5.04% on the week.

The week’s action was largely driven by lithium prices turning lower again, with Chinese lithium carbonate trading around 156,500 yuan a tonne, down more than 2% in the latest session, and global benchmarks also modestly softer. Demand uncertainty around electric vehicles, supply chain adjustments and a recent Chinese policy tweak trimming VAT export rebates on lithium-ion batteries have all added to the near-term volatility. For a stock that trades as a leveraged play on the lithium price, that backdrop is an obvious headwind.

Then we have market’s continuing to work through the latest financials, after a 18.93% rally for the stock in the past month. The company delivered a record FY26 result in late August, with revenue up about 152% to roughly A$1.9 billion, a swing to profit of around A$526 million, cash of about A$2.3 billion and a fully franked 5 cent dividend, the first in three years.

But the FY27 outlook that came with it shifted the conversation. Production is guided to 1,030 to 1,100 kilotonnes, roughly 21% growth at the midpoint, while FOB unit costs are expected to rise to A$575 to A$625 a tonne and capex jumps to A$620 to A$685 million, close to double the prior year, as the Ngungaju restart, P2000 pre-FID work and Colina studies all advance.

That combination, a capex cycle intensifying just as lithium stays unstable, is what the market keeps repricing. Bell Direct added fuel to that debate this week, modelling total FY27 capex closer to A$1.4 billion once post-FID P2000 spending and additional Colina work are included, well above company guidance. Forecast creep of that kind tends to bite hardest on days when the commodity tape is already weak, and today’s session fits that pattern. With the stock still up multiples from its June 2025 lows of A$1.23, profit-taking and portfolio repositioning look to be part of the story.

View From The Street

The average PLS price target sits at A$5.24, just 15 cents above today’s close, suggesting much of the expected growth is already priced in. But from a technical perspective, the trend-strength sits at 32.68 but is falling, pointing to a still-meaningful trend that is losing intensity. That is consistent with a powerful uptrend that has become vulnerable to sharp counter-moves whenever the lithium tape wobbles.

Buyers stepping in below the A$5 level that bulls will be looking to solidify as support is a positive for holders, yet the second failed attempt above A$5.50 in the past two weeks creates a short term double top that will need breaking. For bears, that 7.12% drawdown from Tuesday’s test will also give plenty of encouragement heading into the weekend, setting up next week for a potential battle for direction.