Newmont Shares At 2026 Low, With Support Being Tested

Newmont shares (ASX:NEM) fell 3.57% on Friday to close out last week at A$129.91, extending a technical breakdown that has taken the gold major below its 50-day moving average and into a short-term downtrend. The dip below the A$130 support level ahead of the weekend will have holders eyeing the open, looking for buyers to step in.

The move reflects a broader pullback across gold stocks, with Newmont’s share price down 9.45% over the past month, as the metal itself softens (-5.64% on the period) and investors trim exposure to higher-beta miners following a strong run earlier in the year.

The sell-off appears to be driven by a combination of cooling gold prices, renewed focus on Newmont’s 2026 cost and production guidance, and a rotation away from leveraged commodity plays in a volatile macro environment. Other ASX gold stocks, including Evolution Mining (EVN), Northern Star Resources (NST), and Genesis Minerals (GMD) were down 4.27%, 4.14%, and 7.18% in the final trading session of the week.

With a rising 50-day beta of 2.59 versus the ASX 200, Newmont is amplifying both the upside and downside of gold’s recent swings, and today’s session suggests traders are using weakness to de-risk rather than accumulate.

Gold prices have pulled back in recent sessions, pressuring sentiment across the sector. Newmont’s guidance for lower production and higher all-in sustaining costs in 2026 remains an active overhang, particularly when the underlying commodity loses momentum. That combination of volume headwinds and cost inflation becomes more important to the valuation debate when gold trades sideways or lower, and the market appears to be repricing the stock accordingly.

Broader macro uncertainty is also in the mix. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and US strikes on Iran have fed into inflation expectations and gold flows, but the market is moving between viewing gold as a safe haven and treating miners as leveraged trades. On down-gold days, the latter narrative dominates, and high-beta names like Newmont are being trimmed as part of a sector-wide rotation.

View From The Street

Consensus among analysts remains supportive, with an average target price around 181.50 on the ASX line, implying roughly 40% upside from current levels. On the US-listed shares, Newmont holds a moderate buy rating with no consensus sells and similar upside to Street targets.

That valuation gap frames recent weakness as either a mispricing opportunity or a test of the Street’s medium-term thesis, depending on whether gold stabilises and the company can manage costs and volumes in line with or better than guidance. The tension between a still-bullish analyst backdrop and a deteriorating technical picture highlights the debate around how much geopolitical premium and commodity leverage investors want in the current environment.

Technical Pressure Mounts

The technical setup has turned decidedly negative. Newmont is now trading below its 50-day moving average of 146.03, which itself sits below the 200-day average of 149.99, a classically bearish alignment. The 20-day exponential moving average has also crossed below the 50-day, confirming a recent tilt in shorter-term momentum.

The most recent close sits below the lower Bollinger Band at 130.35, with band width over 10%, indicating a range-expansion move rather than a quiet drift. The combination of a sharp daily decline, elevated volatility, and a rising beta suggests this is a macro and sector-driven unwind of a crowded trade, rather than a purely stock-specific event.

What Comes Next

The path forward hinges on gold’s trajectory and Newmont’s ability to manage the cost and volume challenges embedded in its 2026 guidance. If gold stabilises or rebounds on renewed geopolitical risk or inflation concerns, the stock’s high beta could work in reverse, delivering outsized gains. Conversely, if the metal continues to soften and cost pressures intensify, the valuation debate will tilt further toward the bear case, and the gap to Street targets may widen before it narrows.