MinRes Shares Regain Momentum, Hitting New 52-Week Highs

MinRes shares (ASX: MIN) touched a fresh 52-week high of A$72.13 to start the week, capping a remarkable 197% rally over the past twelve months as the miner delivers on its multi-commodity strategy. The move comes after a healthy retracement, potentially setting the stage for the next move.

The Mineral Resources share price rounded out the opening session of the week up 2.68% at A$72.13, extending the stock’s year-to-date gain to 29%. The advance marks a decisive breakout from a consolidation pattern that had held for much of early 2026, with the stock briefly testing A$71 in May before pulling back roughly 10% to retest support near A$64.

That healthy retracement has now given way to renewed buying, with the stock pushing through prior resistance levels on strong volume. The move places MinRes among the top performers on the ASX over the past year, with the share price nearly tripling from lows around A$24 touched in mid-2025.

Driving MinRes Shares Higher

The rally has been underpinned by a series of operational and financial milestones that have reshaped the investment case for MinRes. In February, the company reported record half-year results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with revenue climbing 33% to approximately A$3.1 billion and underlying EBITDA surging 286% to around A$1.2 billion. Net profit jumped 171% to A$573 million versus the prior corresponding period, driven by Onslow Iron operating at or near its 35 million tonne per annum nameplate capacity, improved lithium recoveries at joint-venture operations, and record earnings from the company’s mining services division.

The momentum continued into the March quarter, with MinRes delivering an upbeat Q3 FY26 activity report in late April that included upgraded production guidance across mining services, Onslow Iron, and the Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium operations. The guidance revisions signalled management’s confidence in both operational execution and commodity demand, with markets responding positively on the day of the announcement.

On 1 May, MinRes announced it had signed formal agreements with South Korean industrial giant POSCO Holdings under which POSCO will acquire a 30% stake in MinRes’ operating lithium business through a new joint venture structure. The partnership is designed to secure downstream processing capabilities and offtake agreements while sharing capital requirements for future expansions along the lithium value chain. The deal came alongside a US$1.3 billion dual-tranche bond refinancing, with MinRes issuing US$650 million of 6.00% notes maturing in May 2032 and US$650 million of 6.25% notes due May 2034. The refinancing extends the company’s debt maturity profile well into the next decade and replaces shorter-dated or higher-cost borrowings, providing greater financial flexibility as MinRes pursues its growth agenda.

Strategic Positioning

The POSCO joint venture represents a strategic pivot for MinRes, bringing in an investment-grade partner from Korea’s battery and steel ecosystem at a time when lithium markets are showing signs of stabilisation after a brutal downturn through 2024 and early 2025. Lithium prices collapsed during that period, weighing heavily on sentiment toward lithium-exposed producers. However, recent months have seen evidence of inventory clearing and incremental price improvements, with MinRes positioned as a leveraged beneficiary given its stakes in Wodgina and Mt Marion, plus the operational improvements that have lifted recovery rates.

The company’s vertically integrated model spanning iron ore production, lithium mining, and mining services, has provided diversification benefits as iron ore has remained relatively resilient while lithium begins to recover. Onslow Iron, in particular, has emerged as a tier-one cash generator, validating MinRes’ strategy of building scale in a competitive seaborne iron ore market dominated by the majors. The mining services arm continues to deliver steady earnings, providing a “picks and shovels” element that is less directly exposed to commodity price swings.

From a technical perspective, the breakout above A$70 and the successful retest of support in the low-A$60s have reinforced the bullish trend. Momentum indicators remain elevated, and the stock’s ability to absorb profit-taking after the initial push to A$71 in May has encouraged trend-following strategies. However, after such a strong run, the bar for further upside has risen considerably, with markets now pricing in continued strong execution at Onslow, sustained lithium market recovery, and no material operational setbacks.

Risks Remain

MinRes carries substantial gross debt of approximately A$5.5 billion, with net debt around A$4.8 billion as at the most recent reporting period. While the improved cash flow from Onslow and better lithium economics have made this leverage more manageable, the company remains exposed to cyclical swings in both iron ore and lithium prices. China’s economic trajectory and policy settings around electric vehicle adoption will be key variables for both commodities, and any disappointment on those fronts could pressure earnings and the share price.

Operating leverage cuts both ways: the same factors that drove nearly 3x EBITDA growth on 33% revenue growth in the first half can work in reverse if commodity prices soften or volumes disappoint. The guidance upgrades and strong Q3 update have raised expectations, meaning the company now faces a higher bar to clear in future reporting periods. Any delays at Onslow related to shipping or infrastructure, plant downtime at the lithium operations, or weaker-than-expected pricing could see the stock give back some of its gains quickly, particularly given the crowded momentum trade that has developed.

Mineral Resources has put forward a compelling turnaround over the past year, transforming from a lithium casualty into a diversified mining success case, but with the shares already up 197% and trading near analyst fair value estimates, the next leg higher could be harder to unlock.