MinRes Shares Bounce On Analysts Upgrades, and Record Performance

MinRes shares (ASX: MIN) added 3.9% ahead of the final trading session of the month at A$57.79, extending recent gains as markets digested the company’s final quarter update for FY26. Mineral Resources delivered a comprehensive operational beat across all business segments, prompting broker upgrades and validating management’s execution credibility after a challenging period.

The MinRes share price sits 4.24% higher YTD, having pulled back from highs, and with a head and shoulders pattern on the chart above $70. The company has now delivered three consecutive quarters of improving operational metrics, culminating in this latest beat across mining services, iron ore and lithium divisions.

Record Performance Drives Share Price Bump

Mineral Resources capped off FY26 with record annual volumes that met or exceeded upgraded guidance in every business unit. Mining Services delivered 341 million tonnes for the year, up 22% year-on-year and comfortably above the company’s upgraded guidance range of 320–330Mt. The division benefited from the Onslow Iron ramp-up reaching nameplate capacity and increased activity across client sites throughout the Pilbara.

Iron ore production reached 29.5Mt on a 100% basis, with Onslow Iron now operating consistently at its 35Mtpa design capacity since August 2025. The asset has transformed from a ramp-up project into a proven cash generator, with FY26 EBITDA expected to exceed A$1.3 billion split between the mining and processing operations. Unit costs tracked to the lower end of the company’s A$54–59 per tonne FOB guidance range, demonstrating operational efficiency gains as throughput stabilised.

The lithium division delivered 559,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate equivalent across Wodgina, Mt Marion and restarted operations. Production came in materially ahead of original volume expectations, with cash costs better than earlier guidance as recoveries improved and operational efficiencies were captured. The performance marks a dramatic turnaround from the lithium market downturn that pressured margins through much of FY25.

Balance Sheet Strengthens

Perhaps most significantly for markets that had flagged balance sheet risk as a key concern, MinRes continued its rapid deleveraging trajectory through FY26. Net debt, which peaked at approximately A$5.3 billion at the end of FY25, has been consistently reduced via stronger cash generation from record EBITDA and strategic refinancing activity. The company remains on track to achieve its target of net debt below 2.0 times EBITDA, reaching that milestone faster than most analysts had anticipated.

The deleveraging removes what had been the primary bear thesis hanging over the stock. Throughout FY25 and into early FY26, concerns about potential equity raising or covenant pressure had kept many institutional investors on the sidelines despite attractive operational metrics. Wednesday’s update provides tangible evidence that the company can fund its operations and growth pipeline from internal cash generation, fundamentally shifting the risk profile.

The company has also completed refinancing of key facilities and made prepayments where commercially attractive, further strengthening its financial flexibility. This positions MinRes to pursue selective growth opportunities without the balance sheet constraints that limited optionality in prior periods.

Price Targets Shift

Goldman Sachs moved to Neutral from Sell and raised its target price from A$58.00 to A$60.00. The broker highlighted refinancing and debt prepayment as balance sheet positives, with the share price retracement from earlier levels prompting the upgrade. Importantly, Goldman Sachs excluded the pending lithium stake sale from its estimates, suggesting potential upside if that transaction crystallises at attractive terms.

Morgans upgraded MinRes to Buy from Accumulate while maintaining its A$68.00 price target, representing approximately 18% upside from the close. The broker cited record mining services volumes driving a broad quarterly beat, lithium production and costs materially ahead of expectations, and net debt reduction that strengthened the balance sheet.

The Goldman upgrade is particularly significant given the firm’s prior Sell rating had represented a prominent bearish voice on the stock. Moving to Neutral removes a key bear voice from the market, and signals that previous concerns around execution risk and financial leverage have been adequately addressed by recent results.

What Next for MinRes?

The report effectively validates management’s guidance discipline after a period when credibility had been questioned. The company provided multiple guidance upgrades through FY26 as has now delivered on those upgraded targets across every segment.

Markets are particularly focused on the quality of the beat, which was driven by volumes and costs rather than one-off items or commodity price tailwinds. This suggests the earnings improvement is sustainable into FY27, provided commodity prices remain at current levels. The company’s track record of conservative guidance followed by delivery or modest beats is beginning to re-establish confidence among the analyst community.

MinRes moves forward into FY27 with a materially stronger balance sheet, proven operational performance across all divisions, and optionality from the pending lithium stake sale that remains outside most analyst estimates. Following a year in which the share price had more than doubled is no easy feat, but the latest print provides hope to bulls that the 30% drawdown from the seven weeks from June 1st may not be the start of something worse.