MinRes shares (ASX:MIN) gave back some gains today, falling sharply lower ahead of the weekend, down 8.22% at A$64.40 as bulls meet resistance at the psychological A$70 level. Today’s price action marks a sharp pullback after a 142% rally over the past twelve months propelled the Mineral Resources share price to multi-year highs this month.
The MinRes share price is now looking for support levels to show themselves, having found resistance forming around A$70, a threshold that proved too rich for markets following one of the most impressive rallies in the Australian resources sector. The pullback comes after MinRes shares set new multi-year highs through the first week of May, capping a remarkable recovery that saw the stock climb from cyclical lows to commanding valuations on the back of upgraded guidance and a transformational lithium partnership.
The pullback also comes following an update of some insider selling, with MD Chris Ellison having sold 1.75million shares in the company at and average price of A$69.98, putting a firm line around that resistance level. Whilst markets do not particularly like to see insider sales in the midst of a bull run, believing they signal a lack of confidence, there can often times be personal reasons for these. Nevertheless, it cast a shadow, and some uncertainty.
The Push Above $70
The latest push for MinRes shares came on 30 April 2026, when the company released its Q3 FY26 activity report featuring upgraded volume guidance across its three core divisions: Mining Services, iron ore operations including the flagship Onslow Iron project, and lithium assets such as Wodgina and Mt Marion. The guidance revisions marked a significant operational beat, with management signalling higher throughput across multiple commodities simultaneously rather than relying on a single driver.
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The Onslow Iron ramp-up emerged as a standout performer during the quarter, with the project achieving attractive realised prices of approximately 91% of the Platts 61% CFR index. On 7 May 2026, MinRes announced that Onslow Iron had shipped over 10 million tonnes through the Port of Ashburton, demonstrating the project’s ability to move significant tonnage as infrastructure scales toward nameplate capacity. The milestone provided tangible evidence that the company could successfully execute a major new iron ore business, improving earnings diversification beyond its established mining services franchise.
The rally accelerated further on 1 May 2026 when MinRes unveiled a US$765 million strategic partnership with POSCO, under which the South Korean steel and battery materials giant acquired a 30% stake in the company’s Australian lithium mining portfolio. The transaction structure varies by asset but effectively monetises a minority interest to a deep-pocketed strategic partner with long-term exposure to the electric vehicle supply chain. Markets interpreted the POSCO deal as validation of asset quality and a de-risking event for MinRes’s lithium exposure, which had previously weighed on sentiment during the brutal lithium price downturn that saw realised prices collapse more than 70% from earlier peaks.
The strategic transaction triggered a wave of analyst revisions, with data from 6 May 2026 showing 10 earnings-per-share upgrades versus just two downgrades in the preceding week. The positive revision cycle attracted momentum and quantitative flows, accelerating the final leg of the rally into the A$70 resistance zone and likely contributing to the subsequent volatility as crowded positioning unwound.
Balance Sheet Strong
Complementing the operational progress, MinRes completed a US$1.3 billion Senior Unsecured Notes issue in early May, deploying proceeds to refinance higher-coupon debt, repay an existing iron ore prepayment facility, and extend the debt maturity profile out to approximately 2030. The refinancing lowered the company’s average funding costs and improved liquidity while preserving capacity to fund aggressive growth capital expenditure at Onslow and across the lithium portfolio.
The balance sheet reshaping represents a marked improvement from the position disclosed in MinRes’s FY26 half-year results in February 2026, when commentary highlighted solid growth in mining services and iron ore progress but also reflected the earnings impact of earlier lithium price declines. The subsequent Q3 guidance upgrade and POSCO partnership effectively reframed lithium from a structural headwind back to a growth opportunity, fuelling the stock’s recovery from cyclical lows.
However, the Q3 report also flagged increased freight and royalty costs at both Onslow Iron and the company’s Pilbara Hub operations as the ramp-up continues, a reminder that scaling major projects typically entails temporarily elevated unit costs before operational efficiencies are fully realised. Markets now face the challenge of balancing upgraded volume guidance against the risk that near-term margins may compress if commodity prices soften while costs remain elevated during the growth phase.
What Next?
Bulls argue that the fundamental drivers remain intact, with tangible operational progress at Onslow, strategic validation from POSCO, and an improved balance sheet supporting a higher earnings profile than markets assigned to MinRes during the lithium downturn. The company’s diversification across mining services, iron ore and lithium reduces single-commodity risk and provides multiple paths to earnings growth even if one segment underperforms.
Bears counter that expectations have been elevated by the guidance upgrade and wave of analyst revisions, raising the execution bar and increasing vulnerability to disappointment. Ramp-up risks at major growth projects, temporarily higher unit costs, and the potential for renewed lithium price weakness all represent headwinds that could compress margins and sentiment more sharply than headline volume growth implies. The crowded bullish consensus post-upgrades also increases the risk of sharp reversals if macro conditions deteriorate or project execution stumbles.
Bull Case:
- Upgraded FY26 guidance across iron ore, lithium and mining services supports higher earnings trajectory
- US$765 million POSCO deal validates lithium assets and provides strategic funding partnership
- Onslow Iron exceeding 10 million tonnes shipped demonstrates successful execution of major growth project
- US$1.3 billion bond refinancing lowers funding costs and extends debt maturity to 2030
- Diversification across three divisions reduces single-commodity exposure and provides multiple growth paths
Bear Case:
- Elevated expectations post-upgrades raise execution bar and increase vulnerability to operational disappointments
- Lithium price volatility remains significant risk after 70% prior collapse from peaks
- Ramp-up costs at Onslow and lithium operations may compress near-term margins
- Crowded bullish positioning after 142% rally increases downside risk on sentiment shifts
- Macro sensitivity to China growth and EV demand exposes stock to commodity cycle
