Lynas Rare Earths shares (ASX: LYC) climbed 3.79% to A$14.51 today, as buyers once again stepped in at what looks to be shaping up as a support zone between A$13.75-A$14. The shaping of a double bottom can be seen clearly on the 1 year chart below, where shares remain 5.1% lower on a TTM basis, and 18.7% higher since the turn of calendar 2026.
The move looks like a pause in selling pressure, after what has been a difficult period for LYC holders, with the share price 34.25% off the April 14th high close. Recent financials did not help stem the tide at the time, despite looking solid on the surface.
When Lynas reported its FY26 numbers in August, the headline figures were genuinely strong: record revenue of A$977.9 million, net profit of A$222.4 million, a record average selling price of A$80.7 per kilogram and double-digit volume growth across NdPr and total rare earth oxide output. Yet profit still fell short of market expectations, and the stock continued moving lower.
An updated 12-year supply agreement with Japan’s JARE locks in NdPr offtake at a US$110 per kilogram floor, with upside sharing above US$150, alongside a US government supply agreement and significant heavy rare earth commitments to Japanese industry have helped somewhat. Those floors look increasingly well anchored: Chinese domestic NdPr prices have roughly doubled from about US$55 per kilogram in mid-2025 to just over US$100 by June this year, aided by government-led pricing arrangements.
The view from the analyst community remains bullish, with the average price target at A$17.93, ~24% above today’s close, and Macquarie retains an outperform rating with a A$20 target, even while flagging strategic questions about whether the Kalgoorlie plant is now surplus to needs if Malaysian processing takes priority.
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The chart, for now, is the main source of caution. Even after today’s gain, the stock trades below its 50-day average of A$15.46, which itself sits below the 200-day average near A$16.89, leaving the medium-term trend pointing down. Trend-strength readings show the ADX in the low 30s but is falling, consistent with a downtrend that is losing intensity and a stock attempting to base rather than one that has already turned.
A potential double bottom would point to an upside bounce in technical circles, yet bulls will be looking to reclaim that 50 day SMA in order to feel a little more comfortable about any trend shift. Having bounced from heavily oversold RSI at 25 at the end of last week, this could mark a pause in a downtrend as technicals cool off, or a more durable floor. Time will tell which, and we would keep a close eye on risk until further confirmation signals present.
