- The ASX All Ords Gold Index (XGD) has continued to rise, closing Wednesday’s session at 16,174.
- Goldman Sachs predict the price of gold will hit $4,000 per troy ounce in 2026
- A strengthening US Dollar could keep the gold price rally in check.
The ASX All Ords Gold Index (XGD) continues its upward trajectory, driven by rising gold prices and positive forecasts from Goldman Sachs. The index’s performance reflects growing confidence in the precious metal as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against economic uncertainty.
All Ords Gold Continues to Rise
On Wednesday, the ASX All Ords Gold Index closed at 16,174, marking a 0.58% increase for the day. This brings the year-to-date gain to over 90%, underscoring the strong performance of Australian gold mining companies. The price of gold itself has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on track for a third consecutive year of double-digit gains, further fueling investor interest in the sector.
Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecasts upwards throughout 2025, citing robust demand from central banks and increased ETF inflows. In February, the bank raised its year-end target to $3,100 per ounce, followed by further increases to $3,300 in March and $3,700 in April. These adjustments reflect expectations of continued aggressive gold purchases by large Asian central banks, driven by diversification strategies and geopolitical considerations. Goldman Sachs estimates that 100 tonnes of physical demand can lift gold prices by at least 2.4%.
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The rise in gold prices is also attributed to declining interest rates, which make the metal more attractive to investors seeking alternative assets. Should a recession occur, Goldman Sachs anticipates further ETF inflows, potentially pushing gold prices to $3,880 per troy ounce by year-end.
Recent market activity reveals a complex interplay between economic indicators and investor sentiment. On September 24, global stock markets edged lower, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and gold prices declined amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the delicate balance between curbing inflation and supporting a softening job market. Despite a recent rate cut, markets anticipated another reduction in October.
However, on September 29, Goldman Sachs upgraded its global equities rating to “overweight” from “neutral” for the next three months, citing strengthening economic momentum, favorable valuations, and increasing fiscal and monetary policy support. This suggests a mixed outlook for gold, as improved equity market performance could potentially divert some investor attention away from safe-haven assets.
All Ords Gold Analyst Summary
Bull Case
- Central bank demand continues to support gold prices.
- Declining interest rates increase gold’s attractiveness.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts further price increases.
Bear Case
- Improved equity market performance could reduce gold demand.
- Uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
- Economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook for gold.
The ASX All Ords Gold Index’s impressive gains reflect the confluence of strong gold prices, driven by central bank demand and declining interest rates, alongside positive, albeit sometimes conflicting, economic signals. While potential shifts in investor sentiment could introduce volatility, the underlying fundamentals for gold remain solid, positioning the index for continued, albeit potentially more moderate, growth.
What is the ASX All Ords Gold Index?
The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is an Australian stock market index that tracks the performance of companies from the gold sector. It includes companies from the broader All Ordinaries index and serves as a benchmark for the Australian gold industry. The index is rebalanced quarterly.
