Dicker Data Shares Hit Highest Level In Years, Backed By Solid Financials

The Print Behind The Move at Dicker Data

For the half, gross revenue rose 14.2% to A$2,100.9 million, ahead of consensus estimates of A$2,073.5 million. Gross profit climbed 23.0% to A$205.6 million versus expectations of A$195.9 million, with gross margin expanding 70 basis points to 9.8%, helped by strategic stock purchases and proactive buying. EBITDA increased 37.3% to A$103.5 million, net operating profit before tax jumped 50.1% to A$86.4 million, and net profit after tax grew 54.1% to A$60.7 million, with earnings per share up 53.5%. Total expenses fell to 5.9% of gross sales from 6.1%, underscoring improved operating leverage and lower finance costs.

The geographic split was uneven. Australia was the clear engine, with gross revenue up 18.3% to A$1,831.5 million and PBT up 55.9% to A$82.5 million. New Zealand, by contrast, saw gross revenue fall 7.6% to A$269.4 million and PBT drop to A$4.0 million amid softer local conditions and adverse FX translation.

The structural story was equally prominent. Recurring gross software sales rose 20.7% to A$600.0 million, with Software adding A$97 million and Advanced Solutions A$71 million year-on-year. The company reported record first-half AI-related sales and bookings, with invoiced value exceeding A$50 million, alongside rising demand for AI PCs and Copilot+ PCs. Initiatives such as its “AI Accelerate” program and AI proof-of-concept deployments with major vendors position the company as a distribution and solutions hub for AI across Australia and New Zealand.

Management issued FY26 guidance for gross revenue of A$4.3–4.4 billion and PBT of A$162–165 million. That implies second-half PBT of roughly A$77 million, about 6.6% above the prior consensus of A$72.3 million for the half, but roughly 11% below the first half, reflecting an expected mix shift as AI-related revenues accelerate.

On dividends, fully franked payments of 23.0 cents per share were made in the half, with a second interim dividend of 11.5 cents per share declared for payment on 1 September 2026; however, no fresh interim dividend accompanied the result, which may have disappointed some yield-focused holders.

What Next?

Price Targets

The setup from here gives something for both sides. On the positive side, the FY26 guidance implies full-year revenue growth of roughly 11–14% and sits ahead of prior expectations, while the FY25 track record gives the current momentum credibility. A growing recurring software base also improves earnings visibility.

On the bear side, the guidance itself embeds a deceleration: second-half PBT is expected to fall roughly 11% on the first half as mix shifts toward AI-related revenue, and management’s own commentary on component costs and supply constraints points to margin pressure. The New Zealand business shows that not all markets are firing, with FX adding another layer of volatility to consolidated results.

After a 50.7% year-to-date rally to a five-year high, valuation risk is also elevated, and the stock’s history of hitting highs on strong results before pulling back on weaker updates suggests sentiment remains highly sensitive to the next set of numbers.

If the stock can break beyond the ATHs of 2021, it will be a case of price discovery, yet you might expect to see some friction around what was the high close of A$15.46.

Bull Case: