BHP Shares Making ATHs, With Copper In Driving Seat

BHP shares (ASX: BHP) moved to a new all-time high on Monday, driven by copper prices nearing record levels, and fresh supply disruptions at one of the world’s largest copper mines.

The BHP share price set the new ATH at A$67.72 before closing 3.01% higher at A$67.12, the stock’s highest-ever close. Sector sentiment was firmly bullish on the day, with the broader S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (XMJ) also hitting a record high (26,613.20), up 2.43% by closing bell.

The sharp move higher reflects a fundamental shift in BHP’s earnings profile, with copper overtaking iron ore as BHP’s largest earnings contributor for the first time in the miner’s history in FY26 results. That particular milestone carries more importance, with copper prices trading near highs. It would appear that plenty is aligning for the stock as we push on through the final full trading week of August.

What is happening with Copper?

Copper prices pushed back above US$14,000 per tonne on Monday, settling around US$6.66 per pound, up approximately 1.5% on the session. The move brings the metal within striking distance of the record US$14,527 per tonne set earlier this year on the London Metal Exchange. Markets are reacting to mounting evidence that the global copper market remains structurally tight, with demand from electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and electric vehicles colliding with constrained mine supply.

The latest supply shock came from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Zijin Mining announced that its share of output from the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex could fall by as much as 57,000 tonnes this year. The company, which holds just over 44% of the project, had been targeting 1.2 million tonnes of mined copper for the full year. The shortfall stems from ongoing recovery efforts following seismic activity that triggered flooding and forced a suspension of operations last year.

Partner Ivanhoe Mines had already cut 2026 guidance for the mine in April, lowering expected output to between 290,000 and 330,000 tonnes from a prior range of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes, a reduction of roughly 22% at the midpoints. The company also trimmed its 2027 forecast from 500,000–540,000 tonnes to 380,000–420,000 tonnes. Despite the setbacks, Ivanhoe reported production of 64,328 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026 and maintained its revised full-year guidance, implying a significant production ramp in the second half.

Kamoa-Kakula represents one of the few tier-one copper growth projects globally, making the production shortfalls material to the worldwide supply-demand balance. The complex is widely regarded as one of the lowest-cost and highest-grade copper operations in the world, and its struggles underscore the challenges facing the industry as it attempts to meet surging demand.

What Next for BHP?

Price Targets

The copper market’s sensitivity to mine-level disruptions has intensified as the structural demand story gains traction. Electric vehicles require three to four times the copper of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, while the build-out of AI datacentres, renewable energy infrastructure, and grid upgrades all demand significant quantities of the metal. On the supply side, new large-scale copper mines typically require 15 to 20 years from discovery to production, and ore grades at existing operations have been trending lower for years.

With BHP shares extending their market cap leading position on the ASX today, there is plenty for bulls to rally behind. Yet with the stock, the sector, and the commodity itself all trading near highs, markets are effectively betting that today’s elevated prices and margins represent a new normal rather than a cyclical top. With the stock having added 46.68% since the turn of 2026, and breaking out above the A$65 resistance level to a new phase of price discovery, it appears likely that further volatility is on the cards.

Bull Case: