BHP Shares Break Free From Range, Copper Price Supportive

BHP shares (ASX: BHP) have broken free of the A$60-$60.50 resistance zone that has held since mid July, closing 3.34% higher at A$62.54. The move highlights a market that is leaning into the copper shift, with the metal itself approaching highs.

Copper Driving Momentum

The rally appears to signal a shift in how the market is weighing BHP’s dual commodity exposure. For much of the past year, BHP’s share price has been caught between a structurally compelling copper thesis and near-term anxiety about Chinese demand, that have held sway since the second quarter of calendar 2026. This push to above what had proved to be stubborn resistance, at least for now, indicates the bull case winning out.

The copper side of the ledger is more complicated but arguably more interesting to the market right now. BHP missed quarterly copper output estimates and flagged lower Chilean production in the coming financial year due to grade decline at Escondida, a genuine fundamental risk. Yet the framing of copper as an artificial intelligence and energy-transition metal, has added a thematic layer that sits well above near-term production noise.

Electrification, grid modernisation, data centre buildout, and electric vehicles are all copper-intensive, and BHP’s scale and project pipeline give it a credible claim on that structural demand story.

Concerns Linger

The macro backdrop is not uniformly supportive, hence the earlier chop. Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs have been in contraction, property starts remain deeply negative on a year-on-year basis, and the construction sector is tracking at record-low readings. But iron ore imports, steel exports, and crude steel output have held up or grown modestly, pointing to infrastructure and export manufacturing as demand absorbers that partially offset housing-sector weakness.

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed BHP as its preferred diversified mining pick despite cutting its China growth forecast, arguing that low-cost Western Australian iron ore, structural copper demand, and expansion options in potash and copper justify the preference.

What Next?

The consensus target price sits at around A$60.21, which is roughly 3.3% below where the stock is trading today. The Street’s caution reflects real risks, particularly around copper volumes and China’s structural property downturn. But the Morgan Stanley endorsement and the pre-results positioning dynamic suggest that a round of upgrades could follow if the full-year result and management commentary on the second half deliver on the optimistic framing that investors are currently pricing in.

From a technical standpoint, BHP shares trade above the 50-day moving average, which in turn sits well above the 200-day average, a stack that reflects an established uptrend being extended rather than a new one being established. Price also sits above the upper boundary of its Bollinger Band, which flags a range-extension day and some short-term stretch. That does not invalidate the move, but it does suggest the stock has moved quickly and may need either a consolidation period or a strong fundamental catalyst to sustain the gains. Further positives coming from underlying commodity prices will do nicely for bulls.