BHP Shares Back At A$65, As Support/Resistance Battle Continues

BHP shares (ASX: BHP) fell back below the closely watched A$65 threshold on Wednesday, closing 3.28% lower at A$64.65 as a pullback in copper prices and a broad sell-off across the ASX materials sector interrupted a rally that had carried the stock to record highs only weeks earlier.

The BHP share price gapped lower at the open, as copper prices fell around 2% overnight, and the broader ASX Materials sector dropped roughly 3% on the day, leaving few places for large-cap miners to hide. The sell-off also coincided with a sharp rise in long-dated bond yields, with markets looking to rotate.

That A$65 level lost on the day carries real technical weight, as a double top around that mark in June was followed by a roughly 13% pullback over the subsequent three weeks, until the decisive breakout late-August saw the stock to a new high at A$68.77. BHP now sits about A$4 below that point, though it remains comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average near A$61.53 and its 200-day average around A$54.61 in an uptrend. For a bit of context (if it was needed), even after the day’s loss, the shares remain more than 40% higher year to date, and remain a huge outperformer on the broader market.

Fundamental Setup

The pullback comes after a full-year result in late August that underpinned much of the prior strength. BHP reported attributable profit of approximately US$9.8 billion, up around 9% year on year, on revenue of roughly US$58.8 billion, up about 15%. Underlying EBITDA came in near US$33 billion, with net debt held below US$9 billion, and the board declared a fully franked final dividend of around 99 US cents per share.

The most structurally important development was the shift in the earnings mix. Copper contributed about US$18.2 billion of underlying EBITDA, a 48% increase, and accounted for roughly 54% of group earnings, marking the first time the red metal has out-earned iron ore across a full financial year. BHP produced around 2 million tonnes of copper for a second consecutive year and is targeting approximately 40% production growth by the mid-2030s through projects in Australia, Chile and Argentina, with management emphasising organic and brownfield expansion over large-scale M&A.

That copper pivot cuts both ways. Recent guidance points to a potential 10–15% decline in FY27 copper volumes relative to FY26, led by the Escondida operation in Chile, an update that on its release knocked roughly 2–3% off the share price in a single session despite record iron ore output. With copper now generating around half of group earnings, the company’s results have become more leveraged to both the metal’s price and operational execution at key assets.

Separately, the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan remains a source of caution. A review of Jansen Stage 2 disclosed earlier this year revealed additional capital requirements of about US$4.9 to US$5.4 billion beyond prior estimates, alongside a non-cash impairment charge of up to roughly US$2.3 billion. That disclosure drove a 4–6% single-day share price fall at the time and reinforced market concerns about cost discipline on megaprojects.

What To Watch

From a technical perspective, the loss of A$65 turns a recently conquered support level back into near-term resistance. Chart watchers will look first to the 50-day moving average near A$61.53 as the next meaningful test; a hold there would be consistent with a corrective phase within an ongoing uptrend, while a decisive break could open a deeper retracement. The June precedent, which saw a 13% pullback over three weeks after a failed break of the same level offers a historical template, though the current starting point is a record high rather than a range top.