BHP shares have moved back above A$59 per share, retesting resistance from March highs and pushing its market cap back above A$300 billion after a 3.09% gain on Thursday reversed a week-long pullback that had seen the mining giant shed 4.77%.
The ASX’s largest company by market value now sits at A$300.31 billion, capping a remarkable 12-month run that has delivered 52.91% returns to shareholders and a 29.15% gain year-to-date. The latest rebound follows a brief consolidation after BHP’s share price made new all-time highs in recent weeks, with the stock now testing whether it can decisively break through the psychological A$60 barrier that has marked the upper boundary of its trading range.
Copper Overtakes Iron Ore
The catalyst for BHP’s re-rating came in mid-February when the company reported half-year results that exceeded market expectations across the board. Underlying profit jumped approximately 22% year-on-year to around US$7.1 billion, while revenue climbed 11%. For the first time in the company’s history, copper generated more earnings than iron ore, marking a pivotal shift in BHP’s commodity mix.
The copper earnings surge was driven by sustained high prices linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out, electric vehicle adoption, and grid modernisation. BHP delivered a much stronger-than-expected dividend alongside the results, signalling management’s confidence in cash flow generation despite ongoing pressure on iron ore pricing. Full-year production guidance remained intact, with copper output targets of 1.9 to 2.0 million tonnes for FY26 reaffirmed at the upper half of the range.
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The February announcement triggered an immediate 4.7% to 7% share price jump to record highs, with market commentary explicitly framing the move as a copper-driven revaluation of the business. The results demonstrated BHP’s successful diversification away from pure iron ore exposure into a commodity with structurally bullish long-term demand drivers.
Guidance Support
BHP’s third-quarter operational review released in late April reinforced the positive earnings trajectory. Group copper production of 476.8 thousand tonnes was down 3% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year, but management maintained FY26 copper guidance at 1.9 to 2.0 million tonnes, implying a stronger second-half ramp. While guidance was trimmed at the Spence operation in Pampa Norte, upgrades at other copper assets offset the reduction.
Iron ore production of 62.8 million tonnes in the third quarter was down 10% sequentially due to seasonal factors but up 2% versus the prior corresponding period. Full-year iron ore guidance of 258 to 269 million tonnes remained unchanged, with Western Australia Iron Ore operations posting record volumes on a 100% basis year-to-date. The WAIO asset continues to anchor BHP’s cash generation, even as copper takes a larger share of earnings.
Metallurgical coal guidance was maintained but steered toward the lower half of the range, while New South Wales energy coal guidance moved to the upper half. The updates confirmed operational momentum across BHP’s core commodity portfolio and supported the earnings assumptions underpinning the recent share price rally.
What Next?
Markets are treating BHP as a leveraged play on the copper super-cycle, supported by multi-year volume growth visibility and a strengthening balance sheet. The company’s operational track record at Escondida and upgraded medium-term copper production intentions offer volume and price leverage if structural copper tightness persists. Record WAIO volumes underpin sustained cash generation, while capital discipline signals such as asset recycling and measured guidance support confidence in management’s allocation decisions.
However, the bull case is heavily dependent on copper prices remaining elevated. If copper corrects from current high levels, earnings leverage cuts both ways. The ability to bounce after a pullback demonstrates that, for now, the bull narrative dominates and dips are being bought. Much will depend on commodity prices from here, but plenty on the street expect a positive year for markets once the geopolitical tensions ease off. Bulls will be looking to recapture A$60, and start to turn current levels of resistance into new support zones for a further leg higher. Plenty to watch ahead of the weekend.
Bull Case:
- Copper earnings now exceed iron ore, providing structural diversification
- China iron ore dispute resolved, removing major commercial overhang
- Strong cash generation supports dividends and disciplined capital allocation
- Copper production guidance reaffirmed at upper half of range
- Operational momentum across core assets with record WAIO volumes
Bear Case:
- Valuation multiples expanded significantly, pricing in optimistic commodity scenarios
- Heavy copper-price dependency creates downside earnings leverage if prices correct
- Capital intensity rising with potash, decarbonisation, and copper expansion projects
- China concentration risk highlighted by recent pricing dispute experience
- Legal and ESG overhangs from Samarco persist despite settlements
