ASX Today: Oil Spikes and Iran Tensions Dominate, as Industrials Sell off

The ASX 200 opened the week sharply lower, falling 1.38% to 8,511.90 points, as surging crude oil prices and escalating Middle East geopolitical risk sent shockwaves through cyclical sectors while energy stocks rallied on the commodity windfall.

The benchmark ASX 200 index suffered its sixth day of declines in the past seven sessions, down 4.2% over the period, as sector moves revealing a classic risk-off rotation. Industrials bore the brunt of selling pressure, plunging 4.02%, while Materials shed 2.84% and Information Technology dropped 0.94%. Financials proved relatively resilient, declining just 0.25%. In stark contrast, the Energy sector surged 2.0% as oil producers capitalised on soaring crude prices.

WTI crude oil climbed above USD 107 per barrel while Brent crude breached USD 111, levels not seen since the initial phases of previous supply disruptions. The catalyst came from fresh comments by US President Trump warning that the “clock is ticking” for Iran, with threats of harder strikes if Tehran does not move toward a deal. Markets interpreted the rhetoric as raising the probability of prolonged Middle East conflict and potential supply disruptions.

Today’s Winners and Losers

Energy names dominated the day’s gainers, with Woodside Energy shares up 2.88% to $32.15, directly benefiting from the oil price surge that enhances cash flow expectations and dividend sustainability. The company’s integrated LNG and oil production profile positions it as a primary beneficiary of any sustained elevation in hydrocarbon prices.

Lynas Rare Earths delivered the session’s strongest performance, jumping 5.46% to $18.93. The critical minerals producer appears to be attracting a geopolitical risk premium, with markets rewarding non-Chinese rare earth supply chains amid broader strategic resource concerns. Elevra Lithium climbed 4.81% to $11.54, whilst a few growth names also found support.

Computershare gained 3.28% to $32.09, and Pro Medicus added 2.79% to $125.52 following a contract win.

Brambles Suffers Historic Collapse

Whilst not the worst performer on the day, the session’s most dramatic move came from Brambles, which crashed 20.23% to $17.63 in its worst single-day performance since 2002. The global pallet pooling giant slashed its FY26 underlying profit growth guidance to 3-5% from a previous 8-11% range, citing severe US subcontractor repair-capacity constraints.

The company disclosed that labour shortages and extended timeframes to meet higher pallet quality standards have created bottlenecks across US Central and Northeast regions, with an estimated earnings impact of approximately USD 60 million for FY26. Management outlined plans to address the constraints through increased pallet relocations, expanded repair capacity, and the purchase of around 2 million additional pallets in the fourth quarter.

The magnitude of the selloff suggests markets are questioning operational resilience in Brambles’ largest and most profitable geography. However, the company maintains the issues are time-bound and operational rather than structural, expressing confidence that constraints will be resolved by the first half of FY27. Analyst consensus ratings remain skewed toward Buy, with 12-month price targets averaging around $25, implying substantial upside if execution improves.

Tuas Shares Down More Than 60%

Tuas shares suffered a catastrophic 62.79% decline to $2.27, the index’s worst performer by a wide margin. The news that the SIMBA mobile business has been operating on an unapproved spectrum sent markets into shock, with the severity of the selloff reflecting both the potential collapse of the M1 deal and material regulatory penalties that could fundamentally alter SIMBA’s operating model in Singapore. We covered the full Tuas story if you need to know more.

Industrial and Consumer Cyclicals Under Pressure

The oil price shock reverberated through energy-intensive and consumer-facing sectors. Eagers Automotive dropped 6.3% to $22.31 as markets priced in weaker auto demand and margin pressure from higher fuel costs and uncertain consumer sentiment, as investment manager L1 Group fell 7.56% to $1.10. Gold-linked names struggled despite the risk-off environment, as West African Resources shares declined 6.12% to $3.07 and Greatland Resources fell 5.88% to $13.28.