Aussie markets closed mildly higher today as crude oil retreated from crisis levels, offering bulls a brief reprieve at the close of March, a month that delivered the sharpest losses for the benchmark index in nearly four years.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed at 8,481.80, adding 0.25% in what was a broad-based bounce across most sectors. Intraday momentum was stronger, with the benchmark testing 8,549 before settling below the psychologically important 8,500 level. The broader All Ordinaries Index mirrored the pattern, finishing just under 8,700 after touching 8,749.80 during the session.
Despite today’s more constructive tone, the damage from March remains, with the ASX 200 down 7.8% on the month, with the All Ords down 8%, marking the worst monthly performance for Australian indices since mid-2022 and one of the most volatile periods since the pandemic-era selloffs.
The immediate catalyst for the stabilisation was a pullback in crude oil prices, with WTI crude, which had surged above US$106 per barrel during Monday’s session on escalating US-Iran tensions, retreating toward US$102. Whilst still elevated, the modest cooling allowed risk assets globally to pause what had been relentless selling driven by inflation fears and growth concerns tied to the energy shock.
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ASX 200 Sector’s Today
Information Technology emerged as the day’s standout performer, surging 2.98% in what appeared to be a classic high-beta relief rally. The sector has been under severe pressure, tracking toward its eighth consecutive monthly loss and shedding 12.6% in March alone. Cloud accounting software provider Xero Ltd led the charge, jumping 6.55% to $75.12 as markets hunted oversold growth names once bond yields eased slightly.
Financials added 0.28%, reflecting incremental dip-buying into defensive income plays after a month of heightened volatility. Materials gained 0.18%, with gold-exposed miners leading the advance as safe-haven flows continued. Industrials rose 0.24% in a tentative signal of re-risking into economically sensitive names.
Energy was the sole major decliner, falling 1.15% with oil.
Individual Share Movers
Gold and precious metals producers dominated the leaderboard. Resolute Mining Ltd surged 8.56% to $1.395, while Genesis Minerals Ltd climbed 5.75% to $5.89. Capricorn Metals Ltd, Westgold Resources Ltd, and West African Resources Ltd all posted gains between 4.9 and 5.3%, benefiting from elevated gold prices and Australian dollar weakness that inflates AUD-denominated revenues.
Wealth and asset managers also featured prominently among gainers. L1 Group Ltd advanced 5.91% to $0.985, and Netwealth Group Ltd rose 4.81% to $21.58.
The laggards list told a different story.
Sims Ltd, the scrap metal and recycling group, plunged 7.49% to $17.90, reflecting ongoing concerns about global manufacturing demand and China-related growth headwinds. Coal producers retreated sharply despite elevated fossil fuel prices: Whitehaven Coal Ltd fell 6.0% to $9.25, Yancoal Australia Ltd dropped 4.71% to $8.29, and New Hope Corporation Ltd declined 3.93% to $5.87.
Rare earths and battery materials names also struggled. Lynas Rare Earths Ltd slipped 3.85% to $18.96, while lithium-exposed Liontown Ltd fell 3.68% to $1.70 and Mineral Resources Ltd declined 3.7%to $53.61. The weakness in this cohort suggests markets remain sceptical of electric vehicle and specialty materials themes amid high financing costs and softer Chinese demand.
Macro Backdrop
The current volatility stems from what has been the driving force over the month, namely geopolitical and subsequent economic pressures. The US-Iran conflict has disrupted Middle East oil flows, with analysts assigning roughly 40% odds that crude could spike materially higher if hostilities escalate further. Such an outcome would prove deeply negative for global growth and risk assets.
Australian consumer confidence has collapsed to record lows near 58.8, reflecting household pessimism about personal finances and the broader economic outlook. That deterioration in sentiment comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia navigates the dual challenge of persistent inflation and weakening domestic demand.
Iron ore prices have held relatively firm near US$106 per tonne, providing some support to major miners and the materials sector more broadly. Gold has benefited from safe-haven demand and currency weakness, although remains well off the highs.
Technically, the ASX 200 closed well below its 200-day moving average ~8,775, and would need to reclaim that level to signal a meaningful shift in medium-term momentum. Bulls point to intraday highs testing resistance near 8,550 as evidence that appetite exists for a move higher, while bears can point to a series of lower highs and lower lows since the February highs.
Today’s bounce could also show some short-covering and month-end position-squaring rather than the start of a sustained bull market. Until there is clear evidence of de-escalation in the Middle East, a durable rollover in crude oil prices, and stabilisation in macro data, rallies are likely to be met with selling pressure.
With the index nursing its worst monthly loss in years and macro risks far from resolved, April could be played out against a similar backdrop. Here’s hoping that back channel diplomacy will provide the boost needed.
