Ampol Shares Hit Highest Level In Years: What Is Driving The Move?

Ampol shares (ASX: ALD) touched A$39.43 on Friday before closing at A$38.67, extending a powerful 12-month rally that has seen the fuel retailer and refiner outperform the broader ASX market by a substantial margin.

The Ampol share price gained 2.98% over the past week, capping an impressive 41.75% rally over the past 12 months that has pushed the stock to levels not seen in years. The intraday high of A$39.43 represents a critical technical threshold, with the A$39 level now emerging as the next battleground where bulls aim to convert former resistance into support.

The rally extends a bullish technical pattern that has unfolded since April 2024, with an inverse head and shoulders formation shaping up. This is a classic reversal pattern that typically signals the end of a corrective phase and the resumption of an uptrend. The left shoulder formed as markets initially feared a sharp normalization in post-pandemic refining margins, while the head marked a deeper sell-off driven by macro concerns around interest rates and geopolitical risks. The right shoulder and subsequent breakout have coincided with growing confidence that Ampol’s earnings power remains resilient.

Driving Ampol Shares To New Highs

The ALD share price strength reflects a confluence of operational performance and shareholder-friendly capital management.

In February 2026, broker Ord Minnett reviewed Ampol’s outlook in a research note examining refining margin dynamics. Management guided to calendar year 2025 earnings before interest and tax of approximately A$945 million, broadly in line with market consensus. Importantly, the company flagged growth expected across all divisions except New Zealand, where earnings are projected to remain flat.

Ampol’s Lytton refinery delivered a December quarter refining margin of around US$15.14 per barrel, meeting expectations and demonstrating the facility’s ability to run at high utilization rates to capitalize on robust crack spreads. The spread between refined product prices and crude oil input costs has remained elevated compared to pre-2020 norms, supported by global capacity constraints, strong transport fuel demand, and regional supply disruptions.

Beyond refining, Ampol’s diversified earnings base includes a substantial fuel retail and convenience network across Australia, providing a more stable revenue stream that complements the cyclical refining business. This multi-pronged approach has helped the company weather volatility in crude oil prices while capturing upside when product margins expand.

Bulls argue that global refining capacity remains constrained following years of underinvestment, plant closures in developed markets, and regulatory pressures that have reduced the incentive to build new facilities. This backdrop suggests crack spreads could remain above mid-cycle levels for an extended period, supporting continued strong cash generation.

The company’s guidance for growth across most divisions reinforces the view that Ampol is evolving from a pure cyclical refiner into a more diversified energy infrastructure and retail business deserving of a higher valuation multiple. Fuel retail margins have held up well despite volume pressures, while the convenience store network continues to generate stable foot traffic and transaction growth.

However, bears caution that much of this positive narrative is now reflected in a share price that has added more than 40% in 12 months. Refining margins, while currently healthy, remain vulnerable to a rapid mean reversion if geopolitical tensions ease, global demand weakens, or new capacity comes online. The flat earnings outlook for the New Zealand business highlights regional headwinds that could spread if economic conditions deteriorate.

Ampol’s rise to multi-year highs reflects genuine operational strength and disciplined capital allocation, underpinned by refining margins that have proven more durable than many expected. Yet with shares up more than 40% in 12 months and trading near all-time highs, the margin for disappointment has narrowed considerably. With tensions continuing to run hot in the Middle East, and energy names once again back to the fore, it could be another interesting week ahead for ALD bulls.