AMP shares (ASX: AMP) climbed 3.1% on Wednesday to close at A$2.63, marking a fresh decade high and extending what has already been a remarkable run in 2026. The AMP share price is now up 43.17% year-to-date and has more than doubled from its March low of A$1.14, a move that few would have predicted at the start of the year.
The latest leg higher came on the back of a formal upgrade from Macquarie, which lifted its rating on AMP from Neutral to Outperform and raised its 12-month price target from A$2.28 to A$2.92.
That new target implies a further 11% upside from current levels, though the rapid pace of the rally has pushed the stock’s RSI to 74.93, a level that technically signals overbought conditions and raises the prospect of near-term consolidation.
Why are AMP shares higher?
The centrepiece of Macquarie’s re-rating thesis is AMP’s stake in China Life Pension Company, or CLPC, a joint venture that has quietly grown into one of the most significant earnings contributors in the group. In the first half of FY26, AMP’s Chinese partnerships generated A$56 million in underlying net profit after tax, representing roughly 100% year-on-year growth and accounting for approximately one-third of the group’s total underlying NPAT of A$174 million. On an EBIT basis, the Chinese partnership contributed around 29% of group earnings, making it a material and increasingly dominant part of the business.
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The scale of the CLPC operation is substantial. The joint venture holds the position of China’s largest enterprise-annuity trustee, managing approximately RMB 2.4 trillion in assets under management. Macquarie calculates that figure represents roughly 30% of China’s total RMB 8.0 trillion Pillar 2 pension asset pool as of December 2025, giving CLPC an enviable structural position within what remains one of the world’s fastest-growing retirement savings markets.
The valuation disconnect at the heart of Macquarie’s upgrade is stark. AMP currently carries its CLPC stake on its balance sheet at A$589 million. However, when benchmarked against recent minority stake transactions in comparable Chinese financial services businesses, including deals involving Ageas and Taiping at 2.8 times book value and Jianxin at 3.1 times book, Macquarie estimates the implied fair value of AMP’s stake sits in the range of A$1.06 billion to A$1.21 billion. That translates to approximately A$0.44 to A$0.50 per share, roughly double what the company currently recognises on its books.
Notably, Macquarie applied a 30% discount to its own valuation of the stake to account for regulatory uncertainty, the complexities of minority ownership, and limited public disclosure around the joint venture’s financials. Even with that haircut applied, the broker concluded that the market is materially undervaluing the asset, and acknowledged the discount may prove overly conservative given CLPC’s capital-light business model and a demonstrated 18% NPAT compound annual growth rate between 2019 and 2025.
The earnings revision accompanying the upgrade is significant. Macquarie lifted its group underlying profit estimates by 7% for FY26, 15% for FY27, and between 24% and 31% for outer years, reflecting both the compounding growth profile of the Chinese partnership and improved confidence in the domestic business.
What Next?
The next catalyst for AMP shares is the third-quarter FY26 cash flows update scheduled for 15 October 2026. Markets will focus primarily on domestic wealth platform inflows to gauge whether the operational recovery in Australia is sustaining momentum. However, it is worth noting that detailed Chinese partnership figures are not reported on a quarterly basis, meaning the next comprehensive update on CLPC’s performance will not arrive until the full-year FY26 results in early 2027.
The technical picture presents a more cautious near-term read. With the RSI above 74, the stock has moved into territory that has historically preceded periods of consolidation or pullback, particularly after the kind of rapid doubling off a cycle low that AMP has experienced. That said, technically overbought conditions can persist for extended periods when underpinned by genuine fundamental re-rating, as appears to be the case here.
