AMP Shares Climb 38% Off March Lows In Rollercoaster 2026

After enduring a brutal start to 2026 that saw prices fall 36% into March lows, AMP shares has staged a remarkable reversal, climbing 38% over the past two months to push the stock just into overbought territory with an RSI reading of 70.96. Yet despite the momentum shift, the share price remains 12.57% lower year-to-date, underscoring what has been a tale of two halves for shareholders navigating one of the ASX’s most volatile turnaround stories.

Whilst it may seem odd at first to see a higher rebound continuing to leave behind a heavy pullback, such is the nature of the beast, that a heavy hole becomes harder to climb out of, in percentage terms at least. But momentum is building.

Driving The Rebound In AMP Shares

The sharp rebound follows a slew of catalysts that have flipped market sentiment, the most significant being a hefty A$150 million on-market buyback in late March representing roughly 10% of shares on issue, a decisive signal of confidence that arrived just as the stock was testing multi-year lows. Combined with an upgrade from Macquarie Research to Outperform and ongoing progress on cost reduction, the capital management initiative has provided persistent technical support and shifted the narrative from legacy-burdened laggard to capital-return value play.

The volatility traces back to AMP’s February release of FY25 results, which missed market expectations and set the tone for the year’s difficult opening months. Statutory profit fell approximately 11% to A$133 million, well short of consensus estimates near A$192 million, as the company absorbed costs related to settling legacy class actions and ongoing remediation expenses. The earnings shortfall reinforced long-running concerns about AMP as a structurally challenged franchise still paying for past misconduct, prompting a wave of selling that drove the stock down more than one-third through March.

Yet management positioned FY25 as a transitional year focused on clearing legacy issues while progressing simplification and cost-out initiatives. Crucially, AMP met its dividend guidance despite the profit miss, maintaining its commitment to shareholder returns even as it absorbed restructuring charges. The company emphasised that a large portion of historical remediation issues are now resolved or provisioned, supporting the thesis that reported earnings should become cleaner from FY26 onward.

The March buyback announcement proved to be the inflection point. By committing up to A$150 million to repurchase shares through 31 December 2026, AMP’s board sent an unmistakable message that the stock had become materially undervalued after its steep decline. The program not only provides earnings-per-share accretion as the share count shrinks, but also delivers a persistent bid in the market that has underpinned the technical rally. For contrarian investors, the combination of depressed valuation, de-risking of legacy exposures, and an improving cost base created the setup for the sharp rebound that has since materialised.

At AMP’s April AGM, management reinforced its strategic priorities around simplification, cost reduction, and capital discipline. The company detailed ongoing execution of multi-year cost-reduction programs and digital investment aimed at improving efficiency and client experience. Management stressed its commitment to transforming AMP into a more focused, capital-light business while exiting non-core assets, a message designed to reassure shareholders that the board remains aligned on improving quality rather than chasing growth at any cost.

The cost-out program remains central to the bull thesis. AMP has reaffirmed medium-term expense reduction targets that should lower the group’s cost base and improve operating leverage over time. When combined with the buyback, successful execution could allow earnings per share to grow faster than nominal revenue, supporting a valuation re-rating if transformation milestones continue to be met. However, transformation spending and redundancy costs have weighed on near-term reported earnings, and execution risk remains a key concern for sceptics.

What Lay Ahead

From a technical perspective, the 38% rally off March lows has pushed AMP’s RSI to 70.96, just into overbought territory, potentially leaving some watching for near-term consolidation or profit-taking. Yet the fact that shares remain nearly 13% lower year-to-date highlights the severity of the early-year selloff and the distance still to travel before bulls can claim a complete sentiment reversal.

Bulls can point to a cleaned-up balance sheet, substantial capital returns, cost discipline that can support margins, and supportive analyst calls as evidence the turnaround is gaining traction. Bears counter that AMP remains dependent on financial engineering rather than organic growth, with revenue forecasts pointing to continued top-line pressure and the risk that transformation and remediation costs have further to run.

The coming months will test whether AMP can sustain its newfound momentum or whether technicals and lingering fundamental concerns trigger a reversal. With the buyback program active through year-end and management promising cleaner earnings ahead, shareholders are betting that the worst is behind them.