4DMedical shares (ASX: 4DX) rallied 8.58% yesterday to close at A$3.74, reclaiming a key technical level and reigniting interest in the lung imaging software company after a bruising five-month pullback.
The 4DX share price reclaimed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at A$3.71 on this week, a level that technical traders and analysts will watch as a gauge of near-term momentum. The recovery builds on a support zone around A$3.35 that has now held on multiple tests, suggesting a degree of underlying demand at those levels.
The stock had shed approximately 50% from its highs over the preceding five months, a correction that weighed on sentiment despite a series of operationally positive announcements. Even after Tuesday’s rebound, 4DMedical remains 17.6% lower year-to-date. The longer-term picture, however, tells a different story, with 4DX still up 110% over the past 12 months, with plenty of volatility in the name.
The next meaningful technical resistance sits at the 200-day SMA, currently positioned at A$3.98. A sustained move through that level would likely attract broader market attention and could shift the medium-term trend more decisively in the bulls’ favour.
What Has Been Driving The Stock Price
FY26 Financial Results
4DMedical’s full-year FY26 results delivered record operating revenue of A$7.1 million, representing year-on-year growth of 21 to 23%, driven primarily by expanding SaaS software subscriptions across global clinical sites. The company’s gross margins remain exceptionally high (above 90%) reflecting the capital-light, software-driven nature of the business model.
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The adjusted underlying net loss improved by 7% to A$32.9 million, pointing to gradual operating leverage as the revenue base grows. However, the statutory net loss ballooned to approximately A$203 to A$204 million, a figure that initially rattled markets. The headline loss was driven almost entirely by non-cash fair-value remeasurement items tied to a convertible note and derivative liabilities associated with the company’s loan facility with Pro Medicus, a complex accounting treatment that has little bearing on the day-to-day cash position of the business.
Perhaps the most reassuring element of the results was the balance sheet, as the company reported a cash balance of A$278 million, providing a substantial buffer against its operating burn rate and removing near-term liquidity risk as a concern for markets.
CT:VQ Pulls Focus
The most strategically consequential development for 4DMedical in recent months has been the commercial rollout of its flagship CT:VQ product across the United States. Following FDA clearance, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) established a Medicare reimbursement rate of US$650.50 per scan, a critical step that transforms the technology from a clinical novelty into a billable, scalable service.
The commercial pipeline has moved quickly. 4DMedical signed a three-year deal with SimonMed Imaging, one of the largest outpatient radiology networks in the country with more than 170 sites across 10 states, on full commercial terms and without a preliminary evaluation phase.
Several of the most prominent academic medical centres in the United States have also transitioned from clinical trial arrangements to full commercial contracts, including the Mayo Clinic, Stanford University, Cleveland Clinic, UC San Diego, the University of Miami, and the University of Chicago Medicine. These institutions carry significant influence over clinical practice standards, and their commercial adoption lends credibility that smaller or regional health systems are likely to follow.
Adding further distribution weight, 4DMedical formalised a partnership with Philips Healthcare North America for the mass distribution of CT:VQ across healthcare networks, backed by contractual minimum revenue targets. The Philips relationship, in particular, could materially accelerate the pace of adoption by embedding 4DMedical’s software within an established global medical imaging infrastructure.
The addressable market in the U.S. alone is estimated at US$3 billion, and the combination of CMS reimbursement certainty, outpatient network agreements, and a tier-1 academic footprint positions 4DMedical to capture a meaningful share of that opportunity over the coming years.
International Progress
Beyond the United States, 4DMedical has secured regulatory authorisations for CT:VQ across six major markets, including Australia (TGA approval), the European Union (CE Mark), the United Kingdom, Canada, and New Zealand. Following TGA clearance in Australia, the company moved quickly to sign paid commercial contracts with domestic private imaging providers, with patient scanning commencing within days of approval.
The CE Mark opens the door to the broader European market, where the company’s acquisition of contextflow, an AI-driven imaging analytics business, is expected to accelerate sales efforts and deepen the technology stack.
What Next?
The fundamental investment thesis for 4DMedical rests on whether the company can convert its growing roster of commercial contracts into a revenue trajectory that justifies the significant capital markets support it has received.
The near-term challenge is managing expectations over the pace of growth, with revenue of A$7.1 million, while growing, is still very modest compared to valuation. Markets will want to see an acceleration of deals flowing over to the top and bottom line.
Technically, the reclaim of the 50-day SMA is a solid start for bulls after a prolonged period of selling pressure, yet there remains plenty of work to be done. Converting clinical and regulatory momentum into meaningful revenue at scale remains a work in progress, and markets will want to see signs of an uptick in upcoming periods.
