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Australia: Business & consumer sentiment in focus

  • The NAB business survey and a number of consumer sentiment surveys are in focus in the coming week.
  • The week kicks off on Monday when CommSec releases its annual Home Size report. The report examines trends in home building and the implications for home building, home purchase and related industries.
  • Also on Monday the Reserve Bank releases the September data on credit and debit card lending – key statistics to monitor economy-wide spending. Data showed that the average credit/charge card balance fell by 1.7 per cent to a 14-year low of $2,721.67 in August. And the value of combined credit & debit card purchases eased by 0.7 per cent in August. Card purchases were up 0.6 cent on the year.
  • Also on Monday the usual weekly data on used car prices is expected from Datium Analytics together with weekly data on petrol prices and small-area building approvals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
  • On Tuesday, the NAB business survey is released with the regular weekly measure of consumer confidence from ANZ and Roy Morgan and the CBA report on credit and debit card lending.
  • In September, the NAB business confidence index improved from -8.2 points to -3.8 points (the long-term average is +5 points). The business conditions index lifted from -6.2 points to an 8-month high of +0.4 points. (long-term average is +5.2 points).
  • On Wednesday, there is another measure of consumer confidence – this time the November monthly survey results from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.
  • Also on Wednesday the ABS releases the “Education and Work” publication for May that includes “survey data over time on current or recent study, educational attainments, and employment.”
  • On Thursday, the ABS issues two publications. The most interest will be in the overseas arrivals and departures data for September.Although, of course, there are limited movements across our foreign borders.
  • The second ABS publication is “Employment and Earnings, Public Sector” for 2019/20 that “contains estimates of public sector employees and cash wages and salaries by level of government by state; and by industry.”
  • On Friday, the ABS issues provisional October data on overseas travel movements – tracking the limited opening-up of the economy.
  • Also on Friday the ABS issues the Input-Output tables for 2017/18 that allows researchers to track the linkages across sectors of the economy. Clearly this is one for serious analysts.

Overseas: Inflation in focus

  • In the coming week inflation data is in focus in the US and China.
  • The week kicks off on Monday in the US when data on consumer inflation expectations is released for October by the New York Federal Reserve.
  • On Tuesday in the US, the weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales figures are released with the Small Business Optimism index by the National Federation of Independent Business and the September JOLTS series of job openings. The business optimism index is at 7-month highs. And job openings eased from 5-month highs in August
  • In China on Tuesday, the October data on consumer prices and producer prices is expected. In September consumer prices were up 1.7 per cent on the year but producer prices were lower by 2.1 per cent.
  • Also worth a look on Wednesday is the official cash rate review decision from Reserve Bank New Zealand.
  • On Wednesday in the US, weekly Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) mortgage applications figures are released.
  • On Thursday, the usual weekly data on claims for unemployment benefits (initial jobless claims) is issued with data on consumer prices and the monthly budget statement.
  • Headline consumer prices are only 1.4 per cent higher than a year ago. And annual underlying inflation (excludes food and energy) stands at 1.7 per cent – the sixth month below 2 per cent.
  • On Friday in the US, the producer price index (PPI) is released with the preliminary November survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.
  • The headline PPI is up just 0.4 per cent over the year to September while the underlying measure is up 1.2 per cent.
  • In China on Friday, data on new vehicle sales for October is expected together with foreign direct investment data for the ten months to October.
  • And on Friday in China, lending and money supply data is provisionally slated for release. Loans outstanding are up 13 per cent over the year to September while money supply is up by 10.9 per cent.

Published by Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec