Australia: Jobs data dominates

  • In the coming week, there is plenty for investors to watch, including the October jobs data and business and consumer sentiment surveys.
  • The week kicks-off on Monday when the National Skills Commission issues preliminary results for the October Internet Vacancy Index. Skilled job vacancies rebounded by 4.9 per cent in September.
  • On Tuesday, ANZ and Roy Morgan jointly release the weekly consumer confidence index. And Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists are scheduled to issue weekly credit and debit card data.  Also on Tuesday, the National Australia Bank (NAB) issues the October business survey. An improvement in both business conditions and confidence is expected in November, but economists will also likely focus on measures of business inflation, including labour and purchase costs.
  • On Wednesday, the Melbourne Institute and Westpac release the consumer confidence report for November. The consumer sentiment index fell by 1.5 per cent in October to 104.6 points, but confidence could be boosted by the end of extended lockdowns and rising vaccination rates in the month.
  • Also on Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the “Monthly Business Turnover Indicator” report, which is expected to provide a timely update on business sales or turnover in September using Australian Taxation Office data. And the ABS issues the “Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages” report the same day.
  • On Thursday, the ABS issues the October employment report. The labour force survey was conducted ahead of the easing of Greater Sydney’s 107-day lockdown on October 11 and the end of ‘stay-at-home’ orders in both the ACT and Victoria. CBA Group economists, however, expect that the data will show around 50,000 job added nationally in October. That said, the unemployment rate could lift from 4.6 per cent to 4.7 per cent with the participation rate up from 64.5 per cent to 64.8 per cent.
  • Also on Thursday, the Melbourne Institute releases results of its November consumer inflation expectations survey and the ABS publishes the “Employment and Earnings, Public Sector, 2020-21” report.
  • And on Friday, the ABS provides an update on “Overseas Arrivals and Departures” for September.

Overseas: Inflation in focus

  • In the coming week, the focus is on inflation readings in both China and the US.
  • The week kicks-off in China on Sunday, when international trade data is released for October. China’s annual exports surged by 28.1 per cent to a monthly record of US$305.7 billion in September as strong demand ahead of holidays and rising prices outweighed production curbs across the country. But high freight costs, elevated raw materials prices, electricity shortages and environmental curbs could weigh on export growth in November.
  • On Monday in the US, year-ahead inflation expectations, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, could lift for a twelfth consecutive month to a new series high in October (series compiled since 2013).
  • On Monday and Tuesday, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to make two speeches at a joint Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada Diversity Conference.
  • On Tuesday, the weekly Redbook data on chain store sales is issued with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism index. A record share of US small business owners struggled to fill job vacancies in September, signalling a tight labour market and the potential for a wages break-out.
  • Also on Tuesday, US core producer prices could lift by around 0.5 per cent in October, following a 0.2 per cent gain in September (the smallest advance in 2021 due to a drop in the cost of services, including airfares).
  • On Wednesday in China, consumer and producer prices data are scheduled for October. China’s factory-gate inflation accelerated to a 26-year high in September, driven by higher commodity prices and supply disruptions.
  • On Wednesday in the US, weekly data on US mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association and new claims for unemployment benefits are scheduled alongside the monthly budget statement, final wholesale inventories report and consumer price figures.
  • Economists expect that core consumer prices (excludes volatile food and energy components) rose by around 0.4 per cent in October. Inflation has proved to be more persistent than originally anticipated by policymakers, due to soaring shipping costs, high commodity prices, rising food prices, lifting shelter costs and rising wages.
  • On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS job openings report is scheduled with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. US job vacancies are a smidgen below all-time highs with the quits rate at record highs as more Americans voluntarily leave their jobs, fuelling job turnover.
  • Finally, Chinese credit growth data is scheduled in the week, with an update on new loans and money supply figures the highlights.

Originally published by Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, CommSec