Australia: The Reserve Bank Board provides an update

  • There are holidays in NSW, ACT, Queensland and South Australia to kick off the week on Monday.
  • On what is looming as ‘Super’ Tuesday, the Reserve Bank Board meets. The Board will update its views on the economy but no changes in policy settings are expected.
  • In terms of economic data, on Tuesday ANZ and Roy Morgan jointly release the weekly consumer confidence survey. Sentiment is improving on rising vaccination rates. ANZ also release data on job ads while the AiGroup release the Performance of Construction index.
  • Also on Tuesday, the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues International Trade in Goods and Services for August and additional detailed information on retail trade for the same reference month.
  • And also on Tuesday, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries issues the September data on new vehicle sales. Over the year to August, sales of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and commercial vehicles were at record highs.
  • On Thursday, the ABS releases the publication: Weekly Payroll Jobs & Wages. The data provides insights into the impact of lockdowns on various job markets.
  • Also on Thursday, the AiGroup releases the Performance of Services index – a gauge on activity in the services sector. In August the PSI fell by 6.1 points to 45.6 points. A reading below 50 signifies contraction in activity.
  • On Friday the Reserve Bank releases the semi-annual Financial Stability Review.

Overseas: US jobs data in focus

  • In the coming week, the focus is on Friday’s release of official US jobs data for September.
  • On Monday in the US, the August data on factory orders is released together with September figures on new vehicle sales. Factory orders are expected to lift 0.5 per cent after a 0.4 per cent rise in July.
  • On Tuesday in the US, the Johnson Redbook weekly data on chain store sales is issued with the August International trade figures and IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, There are also separate results of surveys of purchasing managers in the services sector from Markit and the Institute of Supply Management.
  • On Wednesday, the weekly data on US mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association is scheduled with data on private sector jobs provided by Automatic Data Processing Inc., otherwise known as ADP. After lifting by 374,000 in August, an additional 475,000 private sector jobs may have been added in September.
  • On Thursday in the US, the weekly data on new claims for unemployment benefits (initial jobless claims) are issued alongside the Challenger series of job cuts and consumer credit. In August, US employers cut only 15,723 jobs – the lowest result for over 24 years.
  • On Friday, the spotlight shines brightly on the Nonfarm payrolls data in the US. In July, economists had tipped a 750,000 lift in job numbers. The actual result: a 235,000 increase. The result was blamed on a lift in Delta cases of Covid-19 – the virus stopping people from looking for a job and stopping employers from actively seeking to hire workers.
  • But the jobless rate fell from 5.4 per cent to 5.2 per cent. And hourly earnings (wages) rose by 0.6 per cent in August to be up 4.3 per cent on the year.
  • In September, payrolls may have lifted by 500,000 with the jobless rate down to 5.1 percent and average hourly earnings up 0.4 per cent (4.2 per cent annual increase).
  • Also on Friday, in China the private sector Caixin group will release results of the September survey of purchasing managers in the services sector. In August the index fell from 54.9 points to 46.7 points – the lowest reading since April 2020. The result was blamed on a lift in the number of cases of Delta in the country.

Originally published by Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec