Australia: ‘Spring tsunami’ of economic data

  • A quirk of the statistical schedule is that each change of season is ushered in by a barrage of economic data and events. And there will be more than a dozen indicators released over the week, including the national accounts for the June quarter.
  • But the week kicks-off on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics issues business indicators data, including sales, profits, wages and stocks for the June quarter.
  • On Tuesday, ANZ and Roy Morgan jointly release the weekly consumer confidence survey. And private sector credit data (loans outstanding) is issued by the Reserve Bank (RBA) for July.
  • Also on Tuesday, building approvals figures for July are scheduled with the June quarter balance of payments and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists estimate that net exports subtracted around 0.3 percentage points from economic growth (GDP) in the quarter.
  • On Wednesday, the CoreLogic national home value index is expected to show home price growth of around 1.5 per cent in August with prices decelerating due to East Coast lockdowns. Both AiGroup and IHS Markit release purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) covering manufacturing.
  • Also on Wednesday, the ABS issues the June quarter national accounts. The economy, as measured by GDP, may have expanded by around 0.7 per cent in the quarter, but partial data released so far point to a weaker outcome. Looking ahead, GDP could contract by a sharp 2.7 per cent in the September quarter due to lockdowns.
  • On Thursday, the ABS publishes international trade data with lending indicators for July. Investors will be most interested in the demand for home loans due to lockdowns.
  • On Friday, final and detailed estimates of July retail trade feature alongside August motor vehicle sales and ‘final’ services and composite PMI readings from IHS Markit.

Overseas: US job figures steal the limelight

  • The feature of the week is the US non-farm payrolls (employment) data release on Friday.
  • On Monday in the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index is released with pending home sales figures for July. Contract signings to purchase previously-owned homes fell by 1.9 per cent in June due to a limited number of listings and soaring home prices. Economists expect sales eased by 0.2 per cent in July.
  • Meanwhile in China on Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics releases results of surveys of purchasing managers in both the manufacturing and services sectors for August. Growth risks are mounting due to persistent Delta virus flare ups and chip shortages, threatening to hamper production and weigh on consumer spending.
  • On Tuesday in the US, June home price indexes are released separately by both the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index hit a record high in May, up 17 per cent on a year ago. The weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales index is also issued.
  • Also on Tuesday in the US, the Conference Board consumer confidence index is tipped to ease from 129.1 to 124 in August, while the Chicago PMI could drop from 73.4 to 68 in the same month.
  • On Wednesday in China, the private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI for August is scheduled.
  • On Wednesday in the US, both the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and IHS Markit release PMIs on the manufacturing sector for August. The ISM factory index is tipped to fall from 59.5 to 59.
  • Also on Wednesday, ADP private payrolls, construction spending and total vehicle sales (from Wards) are all scheduled with the weekly data on US mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • On Thursday, the weekly data on jobless claims (unemployment benefits) will dominate market attention, as will the July international trade balance and factory orders figures. A 0.6 per cent lift in factory orders is expected.
  • Also on Thursday, final estimates of June quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs are both issued alongside the August Challenger job cuts report. Redundancies fell by 7.5 per cent to a record low 18,942 in July.
  • In China on Friday, the Caixin services index will be closely monitored as government restrictions have increased.
  • On Friday in the US, the all-important August nonfarm payrolls report is issued. After a massive 943,000 jobs were created in July another 800,000 positions could be added to the workforce in August. The jobless rate could ease from 5.4 per cent to 5.2 per cent in the month with average hourly earnings 0.3 per cent higher.

Australian profit reporting season

  • About half-a-dozen ASX-listed companies are scheduled to report earnings this week as the profit reporting season concludes. Fortescue Metals Group, InvoCare, Crown Resorts, Healius, Booktopia, Nuix and IGO’s earnings updates are all due on Monday.

Originally published by Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, CommSec