Australia: The economic growth jigsaw

  • The pieces of the economic growth (GDP) jigsaw start to come together in the coming week, notably construction and business investment.
  • The week kicks off on Monday with the weekly updates on petrol prices and the used vehicle market and the latest Household Covid-19 survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
  • On Tuesday, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists release weekly credit and debit card spending data while ANZ-Roy Morgan release the weekly consumer sentiment survey. The ABS releases the preliminary January data on exports and imports of goods.
  • On Wednesday, the ABS issues the wage price index for the December quarter – the main measure of wage changes in the economy. CBA Group economists tip a 0.3 per cent rise in wages in the quarter.
  • Also on Wednesday, the ABS issues the preliminary December quarter estimates on construction work done. The estimates of home building work feeds into the calculation of economic growth (GDP) in the quarter.
  • On Thursday, the ABS releases three The latest estimates of business investment (“Private Capital Expenditure”) are issued with the “Average Weekly Earnings” and the detailed labour force estimates for January.
  • On Friday, Reserve Bank releases the “Private Sector Credit” publication (measuring outstanding loans). The ABS is again kept busy with the “Jobs in Australia” publication and a re-titled “Business Conditions & Sentiment” report. The latter previously was named “Business Impacts of COVID-19”.

Overseas: Big week of US economic data releases

  • Around a dozen key US economic reports are issued over the coming week. In China, the loan prime rates decision is announced on Monday with new home prices data released on Tuesday.
  • The week kicks off on Monday when the Chicago Federal Reserve issues the national activity index while the Dallas Federal Reserve releases a manufacturing index. In addition the Conference Board releases the leading index for January.
  • On Tuesday, the regular weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales data is issued. In addition there are two surveys of home prices (from S&P CoreLogic/Case Shiller and the FHFA), a reading of consumer confidence from the Conference Board and the influential Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index.
  • On Wednesday the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) mortgage applications data is issued with January estimates of new home sales. Home sales rose 1.6 per cent in December but that was only the first rise in five months. Sales may have lifted 3.2 per cent in January to an annual rate of 869,000 units.
  • On Thursday, a measure of business investment – durable goods orders – is slated for release. The weekly data on claims for unemployment insurance (jobless claims) is issued. In addition the second estimate of economic growth (change in GDP) for the December quarter is released with pending home sales and yet another manufacturing index, this time from the Kansas Federal Reserve. The US economy was estimated to have expanded at a 4.2 per cent annualised pace in the December quarter.
  • To round off the week, on Friday data on personal income and spending is released with the final estimate of consumer sentiment for the month of February.

Australian profit-reporting season

  • Earnings season moves into the home straight over the coming week (dates are subject to change). Financial reports include:
  • Monday: LendLease Group; BlueScope Steel Limited; Ampol; NIB Holdings Ltd and Costa Group Holdings Ltd.
  • Tuesday: G8 Education Ltd; Estia Health Ltd; Oil Search Ltd; Alumina Ltd; Worley Ltd; Monadelphous Group Ltd; Adbri Ltd; and SEEK Ltd.
  • Wednesday: Woolworths Group Ltd; Nine Entertainment Co; Appen Limited; InvoCare Ltd; Sydney Airport; Medibank Pvt Ltd; Mayne Pharma Group Ltd; Healius Ltd; Blackmores Ltd; WiseTech Global Ltd; Humm Group Ltd; Scentre Group; Michael Hill International Ltd; IOOF Holdings Limited; McMillan Shakespeare Ltd.
  • Thursday: Growthpoint Properties;, Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd; Iluka Resources Ltd; Southern Cross Media Group; Qantas Airways Ltd; Qube Holdings Ltd; Ardent Leisure Group; A2 Milk Company Ltd; Zip Co Ltd;  Stockland; Aventus Group; Link Administration Holdings; Ramsay Health Care Ltd.
  • Friday: BWX Ltd; Reece Ltd; Coventry Group Ltd; Austal Ltd.

Originally published by Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec