Australia: Retail spending, trade, jobs and wealth data in the spotlight

  • Preliminary retail and international trade data headline another busy week on the Aussie data docket. Purchasing manager indexes will be closely observed as will jobs and wealth figures.
  • The week kicks off on Monday when the Bureau of Statistics (ABS) issues preliminary retail trade figures. Economists expect that spending lifted by 0.5 per cent in May.
  • On Tuesday, ANZ and Roy Morgan jointly issue the weekly consumer sentiment survey. And the ABS releases weekly payroll jobs and wages data for the period to June 5, 2021.
  • On Wednesday, The IHS Markit preliminary purchasing manager indexes for June are issued. Aussie manufacturing activity expanded at a record pace in May.  And the services sector saw the sharpest increase in employment on record in May.
  • Also on Wednesday the ABS releases preliminary international trade data for May. Goods exports hit an historic high of $36 billion in April. And the National Skills Commission’s detailed skilled internet job vacancies report for May is released. In seasonally adjusted terms, job ads increased by 1.9 per cent in May to stand at a 12½-year high of 245,400 available positions.
  • The Reserve Bank Assistant Governor (Economic), Luci Ellis, fronts the lectern on Wednesday, the speech being delivered at the Ai Group business lunch in Adelaide at 12.45pm ACST.
  • On Thursday, the ABS releases the “Australian National Accounts: Finance and Wealth” publication for the March quarter. Aussie household wealth increased by $501.5 billion or 4.3 per cent to a record $12,033.5 billion in the December quarter. And net per capita household wealth hit an historic high of $467,709 at the end of 2020.
  • Also on Thursday, the ABS’ “Business Conditions and Sentiments” survey will detail business revenue, investment and hiring plans in June. And the May detailed labour force statistics by industry rounds-out a busy week.

Overseas: US economic growth, housing and manufacturing data in focus

  • There are a number of US economic indicators to watch in the coming week, including economic growth (GDP), home sales, regional manufacturing surveys and personal income and spending figures.
  • The week kicks-off in China on Monday with the announcement of 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates. No change is expected. In a quiet week for China, the March quarter current account balance is also due on Friday.
  • On Monday in the US, the Chicago Federal Reserve issues its national activity index for May.
  • On Tuesday in the US, the usual weekly Johnson Redbook chain store sales figures are released with the Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index and existing home sales data.
  • Sales of previously owned US homes are estimated to have fallen for a fourth successive month in May – down by around 2.4 per cent to an annual rate of 5.71 million – as a lack of inventory pushes up prices by the most on record, restraining purchases.
  • On Wednesday, preliminary June purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) are scheduled for developed economies, including the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan. Factory and services activity are rebounding as economies re-open and vaccination rates increase. Activity is expanding at a record pace in the US, fuelled by policy stimulus.
  • On Wednesday in the US, the usual weekly mortgage applications figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are scheduled alongside new home sales and the March quarter current account data.
  • Higher US home prices and construction backlogs weighed on new home sales in April (-5.9 per cent), but a partial rebound of 2.2 per cent is expected in May with the annual rate of sales expected to increase from 863,000 to 882,000 units.
  • On Thursday in the US, weekly data on claims for unemployment benefits (initial jobless claims) are issued with durable goods orders, wholesale inventories, the advance goods trade balance and the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing index.
  • In a busy day on the US data docket on Thursday, the key focus will be on the third and final estimate of US economic growth for the March quarter. The US economy expanded at a 6.4 per cent annualised rate in the second estimate of first quarter, as measured by GDP, fuelled by government stimulus and a reopening of the economy.
  • Also on Thursday, the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to release bank stress test results, which could move financial markets.
  • On Friday, economists expect measures of personal income (-2.9 per cent) and spending (up 0.3 per cent) to be mixed in May. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index lifted 0.7 per cent in April – the most since October 2001 – to be up 3.1 per cent on a year ago. And the PCE deflator – the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation target – rose 3.6 per cent in April from a year earlier.

Originally published by Ryan Felsman, Senior Economist, CommSec