Australia: Dominated by Reserve Bank events

  • In the coming week, Reserve Bank events dominate the diary.
  • The week kicks-off on Monday with panel participation by Alexandra Heath, Reserve Bank Head of International Department, at AusPECC Webinar Series (online).
  • On Tuesday, ANZ and Roy Morgan jointly release the weekly consumer confidence index.
  • Also on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank releases minutes of the October 5 Board meeting. At that meeting the Board discussed details of the Financial Stability Review as well the decision by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to tighten home lending criteria.
  • In a busy day on Tuesday, Commonwealth Bank also releases its Household Spending Intentions report for September alongside the weekly credit and debit card spending data
  • On Wednesday, the National Skills Commission releases the final estimates of skilled job vacancies for September. In the preliminary release, available positions unexpectedly rose by 4.9 per cent or by 10,700 job ads.
  • The ABS releases the annual “Water Account” also on Wednesday.
  • On Thursday, the ABS issues the detailed labour force estimates for September. Of most interest are the demographic and regional labour market estimates.
  • Also on Thursday, the ABS releases the “Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages” report for the period to September 25. Lockdowns in many parts of Australia are complicating analysis of the state of the job market.
  • On Friday, there is panel participation by Philip Lowe, Reserve Bank Governor, at Universidad de Chile’s Conference on Central Bank Independence, Mandates and Policies (online).
  • Also on Friday, Markit will provide the early (‘flash’) estimates of manufacturing and services activity found by surveyed purchasing managers in October.

Overseas: China economic growth data in focus

  • In the coming week, the focus is on Chinese economic growth and housing data in the US.
  • On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics in China issue the September quarter economic growth (GDP) estimate as well as September readings for retail sales, production and unemployment. Investors will be watching carefully to gauge how much the economy has slowed in response to an upsurge in Delta cases, supply chain disruptions and a government crackdown on industries ranging from technology to property
  • In the US on Monday, September data is released for industrial and manufacturing production while data on capital flows is also issued. Industrial production could lift 0.2 per cent in September.
  • On Tuesday in the US, the Johnson Redbook weekly data on chain store sales is issued with the September data on housing starts and building permits. Permits stand at 4-month highs. Starts are just off 5-month highs.
  • On Wednesday in China, interest rates are set for the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rate terms.
  • On Wednesday in the US, weekly mortgage applications data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is scheduled alongside the US Federal Reserve Beige Book of regional economic conditions.
  • On Thursday in the US, the weekly data on new claims for unemployment benefits (initial jobless claims) is released alongside existing home sales, the Conference Board leading index and the influential manufacturing survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.
  • And on Friday, the so-called ‘flash’ October readings for manufacturing and services activity are released across developed economies, including the US, Europe, Japan and the UK. The data is obtained by surveying purchasing managers. The latest composite reading (manufacturing and services) in the US was the lowest for a year.

US corporate reporting season: September quarter 2021

  • The US profit reporting season (or earnings season) picks up pace in the coming week.
  • Amongst companies scheduled to report on Monday: Steel Dynamics; State Street.
  • On Tuesday: BNY Mellon; Halliburton; Johnson & Johnson; Philip Morris; Procter & Gamble; Travelers; Netflix; United Airlines.
  • On Wednesday: Abbott Labs; Baker Hughes; Biogen; Verizon; IBM; Las Vegas Sands; Tenet Healthcare; Tesla.
  • On Thursday: American Airlines; AT&T; Dow; Freeport-McMoRan; Southwest Air; Whirlpool; Mattel; Snap; Intel.
  • On Friday: American Express; Schlumberger.

Originally published by Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec