XRP has fallen 1.56% to $1.13 today, trading decisively below its major exponential moving averages as weakening derivatives activity and reduced retail participation compound downside momentum in the popular altcoin.
The XRP price is now positioned below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages at $1.18, $1.29, and $1.50 respectively, a configuration that technical analysts widely interpret as a bearish trend structure. The cryptocurrency has shed approximately 62% from its July 2025 peak above $3.00, with the current price action testing critical support near $1.10.
Trading volumes have thinned materially compared with the speculative fervour witnessed during XRP’s rally following positive regulatory developments earlier in the cycle.
The Setup
The weakness in XRP reflects both asset-specific deleveraging and a wider rotation out of altcoins as global yields rise and risk appetite wanes. Futures open interest has plummeted by an estimated 60–70% from prior peaks, with recent data showing open interest at multi-month lows. In late June, long liquidations surged 832% in a single week, accompanied by deeply negative funding rates that signalled a broad flush-out of leveraged bullish positions.
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Despite the technical deterioration, XRP-focused exchange-traded funds have recorded eight consecutive weeks of net inflows totalling approximately $1.47 billion, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum products faced outflows. This divergence suggests longer-horizon institutional buyers continue to accumulate through regulated vehicles, viewing the SEC settlement as a structural positive that removes years of regulatory uncertainty.
The technical picture remains clear. XRP is entrenched in a medium-term downtrend, with price action capped by a descending trendline from early 2026 and sitting just above the $1.10 support cluster. That level coincides with prior horizontal congestion and represents what many chartists describe as a “last local line of defence.” A daily and weekly close below $1.10 on rising volume would likely trigger additional systematic selling and expose the $0.90–$1.00 zone, with further downside risk into the mid-$0.80s if momentum accelerates.
Conversely, bulls require a convincing defence of $1.10 followed by a reclaim of the 50-day EMA at $1.18 to shift near-term sentiment. A sustained move above the 100-day EMA around $1.30 would mark a more significant technical repair, potentially attracting fresh speculative interest. Derivatives data will be closely watched; stabilising or rising open interest coupled with neutral-to-positive funding rates would signal genuine demand rather than a transient short squeeze.
On-chain metrics paint a mixed picture.
Active addresses and transaction momentum have declined relative to 2025 peaks, and many retail holders now sit on smaller unrealized gains or outright losses. Sentiment has turned notably bearish, with the crypto trading 38% below where it began 2026.
For now, the negative technical signals, reduced retail activity, and macro headwinds keeps near-term bias firmly to the downside. With the year so far shaping up as a difficult one for crypto bulls, there will be plenty already washed out in the drawdown, leaving perma-bulls looking for new support to step in.
