Bitcoin prices have added more than 8% over the past ten days to test $66,000, buoyed by a landmark US-Iran peace agreement and fresh commentary from Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong that the cryptocurrency may have established its cycle floor around the $60,000 mark.
The world’s largest digital asset climbed is up 3.1% over the past 5 days, trading above $65,000, and extending a recovery that began after Bitcoin plunged to $59,100 during a brutal liquidation cascade between 4 and 6 June. That selloff wiped out more than $3 billion in leveraged positions as traders unwound bets amid broader market turbulence. The rebound gathered momentum over the weekend following confirmation of a framework agreement between Washington and Tehran that would halt Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
President Trump announced on Saturday that Iran had agreed to the terms, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June in Switzerland. The deal includes a 60-day negotiation window to finalise details around nuclear oversight and sanctions relief. Markets responded enthusiastically to the reduced geopolitical risk, sending oil prices sharply lower and lifting equities across Asia and Europe. Share markets rallied strongly to start the week, reflecting a broad shift into risk assets that benefited Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Momentum
The catalyst for the latest leg higher came as Bitcoin reclaimed key technical levels, breaking back above its 50-day moving average near $63,000 and testing resistance at the 100-day average in the mid-$65,000 range. Traders noted that the move appeared driven initially by short-covering and macro relief rather than a decisive return of institutional capital. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their fifth consecutive week of net outflows, shedding approximately $300 million over the latest reporting period, though the pace of redemptions has slowed markedly from the $1 billion-plus weekly outflows seen in prior weeks.
Speaking over the weekend, Armstrong said he intuitively feels Bitcoin may have bottomed around $60,000 and expects the asset to trade at much higher levels by 2030.
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As CEO to one of the largest crypto trading platforms, the framing of recent volatility as part of normal crypto market cycles, and the long-term structural case for Bitcoin as digital gold carries some weight. Armstrong pointed to expanding use cases across stablecoins, derivatives, and prediction markets as evidence that the broader crypto ecosystem is maturing beyond dependence on a single narrative. His comments provided a psychological anchor for markets still grappling with uncertainty about whether the recent lows will hold.
Yet sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 20 to start the week, firmly in extreme fear territory, suggesting that traders have yet to regain confidence despite the price recovery. Some cycle-focused analysts caution that historical patterns point to the possibility of a deeper bear market trough arriving later in 2026, well after the initial sharp drawdown from all-time highs. Under that framework, the current $60,000 level could prove to be an interim support rather than the definitive cycle low, leaving room for further downside if macro conditions deteriorate or geopolitical risks resurface.
The Setup
From a positioning standpoint, the heavy leverage flush during the early June selloff has cleared out a significant amount of late-cycle long exposure, a dynamic that often precedes more durable bottoms. The fact that Bitcoin has bounced sharply while sentiment indicators remain depressed suggests that positioning is not crowded on the long side, potentially setting up a classic contrarian opportunity if conditions stabilise. However, the continued absence of strong inflows into spot ETFs signals that institutional and advisory allocations remain cautious, limiting the firepower available to sustain a rally without further macro support.
Cross-asset correlations remain tight, with Bitcoin trading in lockstep with equities and other high-beta risk assets. The cryptocurrency’s behaviour during the recent peace-deal rally underscores its role as part of the broader institutional risk complex rather than a standalone store of value. That integration brings benefits when macro tailwinds blow favourably but also exposes Bitcoin to sharp reversals if risk appetite sours. The easing of oil prices and inflation expectations stemming from the Strait of Hormuz reopening provides near-term support, yet any hawkish shift from central banks or renewed supply shocks could quickly undermine that narrative.
Technical analysts are watching the $70,000 to $72,000 zone as the next major resistance area, with a break above that range potentially opening the door to a test of prior highs in the upper $70,000s. On the downside, a failure to hold above $60,000 would likely trigger renewed selling pressure and raise questions about whether the cycle low is truly in place. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current rebound represents the start of a new leg higher or merely a relief rally within a longer-term downtrend.
