The Australian share market is tipped to start the week trading lower despite Wall Street reaching record heights.
All three indices on Wall Street broke records on Friday, with the S&P 500 ending above 30000 for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 243.95 points, or 0.9 per cent to 27,332.03 and the NASDAQ rose 48.10 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 8244.14.
Despite this, the futures market suggests the ASX will open lower on Monday.
“Surprisingly futures is down 30 points suggesting that despite the rally on Wall Street, our market might open a little bit weaker,” AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver said on Sunday.
“I’d actually be surprised if it opened that weak, I think it’s going to open on the soft side but its probably more likely to be 10 or 20 points.”
The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, so all ears will be on a speech by its chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, Dr Oliver said.
“He’ll probably confirm that the Fed will cut interest rates in the weeks ahead,” he said.
“Australia started cutting first and now looks like America will be cutting after a period of raising interest rates in 2015,” he said, noting Europe will likely follow suit.
In Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday closed down 19.6 points, or 0.29 per cent, to 6,696.5 points The broader All Ordinaries was down 17 points, or 0.25 per cent, to 6,788.8.
On Thursday, June’s labour force survey will be released, with the unemployment rate predicted to hold at 5.2 per cent alongside 10-20,000 employment growth.
“Those figures will be looked at quite closely. If unemployment doesn’t come down much then it’s consistent with the Reserve Bank having to do more in terms of cutting interest rates,” Dr Oliver said.
Minutes of the RBA’s most recent meeting will be released on Tuesday and will likely echo Governor Philip Lowe’s recent remarks that the outlook remains “reasonable” with further easing depending on the data.
“At the time being the RBA is quite happy to sit back and see how things unfold,” Dr Oliver said, noting AMP predicts another rate cut in November.
The market is also keenly awaiting the latest economic growth data from China and retail sales data from the US.