The Australian Stock Exchange is tipped to open positively when trade resumes on Monday but a negative outcome from crucial trade tariff talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could dampen the numbers.
The market’s likely rise comes after a rally in the US share market which saw all major indices up 0.8 per cent.
The futures market predicts that the benchmark ASX200 will see a gain of about 0.4 per cent, or 25 points, when Australian trade resumes on Monday.
But the expected rise is contingent on the outcome of a two-and-a-half-hour working dinner between Trump and Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires which was held on Saturday, local time.
There has been no immediate comment on the outcome of the dinner from representatives for either country.
AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver said the trade dispute between China and the US was a major issue of the year, with a negative outcome expected to dampen the open of Australia’s market.
‘If there’s some sort of positive outcome where they agree to work together to try and resolve their trade differences then the market could be up by more,’ Dr Oliver told AAP.
‘The main impact is the threat posed to our exports to China.’
On the international front, discussions on oil at the OPEC meeting on Thursday are expected to conclude with a response to the recent collapse in oil prices.
Meanwhile in the US, jobs figures out on Friday will likely show another decent gain in jobs with the congressional testimony of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday expected to indicate the continued raising of interest rates, though a more cautious approach is slated for 2019.
On local markets the Reserve Bank will meet on Tuesday, but is expected to leave interest rates on hold.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 91.2 points, or 1.58 per cent, at 5667.2 on Friday, while the broader All Ordinaries lost 1.48 per cent.
The Australian dollar was buying 73.15 US cents on Friday 1630 AEDT.