Investor Signposts: Jobs, business and consumer surveys dominate
CommSec Chief Economist Craig James previews the economic data scheduled for the week ahead including the RBA Board Minutes, population data and US home sales figures.
Australia: Jobs, business and consumer surveys dominate
• It’s probably fair to say that there are no ‘top shelf’ economic indicators for release in either Australia or the US in the coming week. But as always the indicators round out our knowledge of how the economies are performing.
• The week kicks-off on Monday with the “Overseas Arrivals & Departures” publication from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). As well as providing data on tourist arrivals and departures, there are figures on longer-term migration flows.
• Tourist arrivals rose by 2.6 per cent to a record high of 771,600 in March. Departures rose by 4.1 per cent in March to a record high of 908,100. Arrivals are up 9.0 per cent on the year with departures up by 6 per cent.
· On Tuesday the minutes of the last Reserve Bank Board meeting are released. Each meeting there is a special issue or topic that is discussed. And that discussion can prove useful in gauging member views on interest rate sensitivities.
• In terms of economic data, on Tuesday the ABS releases its publication “Residential Property Price Indexes”. The data is relatively “old”, up to just the March quarter. But apart from prices there is other data covering the average value of homes and changes in the number of homes in each state.
• Also on Tuesday is the regular weekly gauge on consumer confidence from Roy Morgan and ANZ.
• On Wednesday the Reserve Bank Governor, Philip Lowe, participates in a panel discussion at the at the Forum on Central Banking, hosted by the European Central Bank in Portugal.
• In terms of economic data, data on skilled vacancies is released on Wednesday with the CBA Business Sales Indicator.
• On Thursday the ABS issues the population data for the December quarter as well as detailed figures on the labour market. Australia’s population expanded by 395,613 people over the year to September 2017 to 24,702,851 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose marginally from a downwardly-revised 1.60 per cent (previous 1.61 per cent) to 1.63 per cent – still the fastest population growth in around 3½ years.
• And the detailed job data will include information on employment by industry. The job market is coming off a record year in 2017 and employment growth is still well above average as is the growth in the number of people entering the job market.
• Also on Thursday the Reserve Bank releases the quarterly Bulletin.
Overseas: US housing data dominates
• In the US over the coming week there will be a raft of indicators on the housing market including starts, home prices and sales of existing homes.
• The week kicks off on Monday in the US with the National Association of Home Builders releasing the activity survey for June.
• On Tuesday, data on new construction – the number of homes where work began in May – is released. Over the last seven months, starts have been bouncing around at an annualised pace of 1.20-1.35 million. Starts stood at a four-month low in April of a 1.287 million annual rate.
• Also on Tuesday the regular weekly data on chain store sales is released.
• On Wednesday, data on the current account deficit will be released with existing home sales. There is around four months worth of supply of homes on the market. Sales have tracked sideways over the past year.
• Also on Wednesday the regular weekly data on mortgage finance is issued.
• On Thursday the US leading index is released with monthly data on home prices and the influential Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey.
• The US leading index is designed to show where the economy is headed, and on the basis of the 0.4 per cent increase in April, the economy has solid momentum.
• Also on Thursday in the US is the regular weekly data on new claims for unemployment insurance.
• On Friday the Markit “flash” or preliminary readings on activity in the services and manufacturing sectors are issued. And the survey results aren’t just issued in the US, but also France, Germany, Eurozone and Japan.
• Well, the first six months of 2018 is almost completed. So it is an opportune time to see how global sharemarkets and currencies have performed.
• CommSec has tracked the cross rate of 120 currencies against the US dollar over the year and only 18 have appreciated since the start of the year. And gains have averaged just 1.4 per cent. Around 20 currencies are unchanged against the greenback while the remainder have weakened, averaging losses of 3.3 per cent.
• The Colombian peso is strongest, up 4.2 per cent, followed by the Japanese yen. The weakest is the Venezuelan bolivar, falling from 9.975 bolivar per US dollar to 79,800 bolivar/USD. The Australian dollar is 90th, down 2.7 per cent.
• Across 73 sharemarkets, 37 have risen over 2018 while 36 have fallen. The Ukraine market is strongest, up 40 per cent while Turkey is down 17 per cent. The Australian sharemarket is in 41st spot, down 0.6 per cent this year.