18 Share Tips – 22nd September 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of 18 Share Tips – our weekly selection of top ASX shares, chosen by leading analysts, that we think are worth considering.

This week James Nicolaou of PAC Partners, Jed Richards of Shaw and Partners and Angus Geddes of Fat Prophets share their ‘Buy’, ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendations.

Please note these share tips are simply recommendations and are in no way intended as financial advice.  These share tips are general advice and don’t take into account any individual’s financial situation. Investors are advised to seek professional financial advice before investing.

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James Nicolaou, PAC Partners

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Symal Group (SYL)

Symal provides diversified services to the infrastructure, power, defence and renewable sectors, among others. Normalised net profit after tax of $45.7 million in fiscal year 2025 exceeded prospectus guidance of $41.6 million. It had estimated work in hand of $1.76 billion at June 30, 2025. With execution beating prospectus guidance, margins expanding and the stock still trading at a discount to peers, we see a clear path to a re-rating.

BUY – Kelsian Group (KLS)

Kelsian is a global operator of bus, motorcoach and marine services. Apart from Australia, it operates in the US, UK, Singapore and Channel Islands. Revenue of $2.208 billion in fiscal year 2025 was up 9.5 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Underlying EBITDA of $285 million was up 7.4 per cent. The board anticipates underlying EBITDA of between $297 million and $310 million in fiscal year 2026, which provides visibility. The company has a plan to potentially divest its tourism portfolio. In our view, efficiency gains and steady patronage provide a clear runway for a re-rating.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Superloop (SLC) 

Superloop is an internet service provider. It added 275,000 net new customers during full year 2025, taking the total to more than 731,000. Revenue of $546.5 million in full year 2025 was up 31 per cent on the prior corresponding period. It delivered a net profit after tax of $1.2 million, an improvement of $16 million. The company is continuing to focus on increasing its share of National Broadband Network services. At this point, we prefer to monitor margins, average revenue per user gains and churn discipline.

HOLD – SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

SKS designs and installs electrical technologies and digital infrastructure. Sales revenue of $261.66 million in full year 2025 was up 92 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Profit after tax of $14.03 million was up 111.8 per cent. The company is forecasting revenue of about $300 million in fiscal year 2026. Work in hand was $207 million at July 2025. We remain bullish on the data centre theme and improving margins. We wait for further contract conversion and margin durability.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Tyro Payments (TYR)

Tyro is a technology-focused provider of payment solutions and business banking products. Operationally, full year 2025 landed broadly in line with expectations. EBITDA of $61.6 million was up 10.6 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Gross profit of $220.1 million was up 4.4 per cent. The shares have risen from 97 cents on August 11 to trade at $1.242 on September 18. On August 13, Tyro informed it had received unsolicited and non-binding interest from separate parties regarding the potential acquisition of the company. However, the interest at August 13 wasn’t at a level the Tyro board considered representative of the company’s intrinsic value. We would be inclined to trim into a strength, while retaining a smaller portfolio for upside if a credible offer emerges. If nothing eventuates, the re-rating could unwind quickly.

SELL – DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

DGT is a diversified owner, operator and developer of data centres. DGT recently announced that its Sydney based data centre (SYD1) development had been awarded certified strategic status – the highest level – under the Australian Government hosting certification framework (HCF). Fiscal year 2025 annualised underlying EBITDA of $99 million was ahead of prospectus guidance. Management stopped short of firm fiscal year 2026 earnings guidance. Growth depends on successfully executing its strategy. Shares in DGT were priced at $5 in the initial public offering prior to listing on the ASX on December 13, 2024. The shares were trading at $2.895 on September 18. Investors may want to consider reducing their holdings and risk prior to further news developments.

Jed Richards, Shaw and Partners

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – BWP Trust (BWP)

This real estate investment trust invests in and manages commercial properties across Australia. BWP is the biggest owner of Bunnings hardware sites in Australia with 66 stores. BWP offers dependable income and asset quality. The trust owns prime land with low cost buildings, resulting in minimal depreciation and strong capital preservation. High occupancy, stable cash flow and an attractive dividend yield make BWP a prudent choice for income focused investors seeking low volatility and long term value.

BUY – Woolworths Group (WOW) 

Investors have punished the share price since the supermarket giant released its full year results. The shares closed at $33.42 on August 26, the day before the results. The shares were trading at $27.59 on September 18. We suggest investors buy the stock while sentiment is low and value is compelling. The stock is currently out of favour, so it offers a rare entry point into a high quality defensive business with strong brand loyalty. Company earnings are resilient, supported by essential consumer spending. In our view, Woolworths presents upside potential for portfolios seeking stability and recovery.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Metcash (MTS)

Metcash is a wholesale distribution and marketing company involved in food, liquor and hardware. We suggest holding Metcash for stable income and defensive positioning. It offers a solid dividend yield, resilient earnings and reliable cash flow in uncertain markets. Its exposure to essential consumer goods and regional retail provides downside protection, making it a suitable hold for income-focused investors seeking stability over aggressive growth.

HOLD – Car Group (CAR)

As Australia’s leading online automotive marketplace, CAR continues to deliver strong earnings and international expansion. Reported revenue was up 8 per cent in fiscal year 2025 when compared to the prior corresponding period. Reported net profit after tax increased 10 per cent. The company’s scalable platform, recurring revenue and exposure to mobility trends support long-term growth. In our view, CAR’s valuation is elevated, but its consistent performance leaves it as a hold recommendation for steady growth and digital leadership.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

The retail giant announced reported profit before tax of $753.1 million in fiscal year 2025, up 39 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Total assets reached $8.37 billion on June 30, 2025. It was the first time total assets surpassed $8 billion. The shares have risen from $4.83 on April 4 to trade at $7.35 on September 18. We suggest investors consider locking in some gains after a strong rally. While the company has performed well, the recent share price appears stretched. In our opinion, near term catalysts are limited at this point.

SELL – Coles Group (COL)

The supermarket giant is a solid performer. The shares have risen from $18.47 on March 19 to trade at $23.77 on September 18. The company generated group sales revenue of $44.352 billion in fiscal year 2025, up 3.6 per cent on a normalised basis when compared to the prior corresponding period. The group announced a reported net profit after tax of $1.079 billion, an increase of 2.4 per cent on a normalised basis. The share price appears stretched at these levels, particularly when compared to rival Woolworths. Coles has enjoyed a strong run, so we see limited upside at this stage of the cycle. Investors may want to consider locking in some profits and investing in other opportunities with better long term potential.

Angus Geddes, Fat Prophets

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY – Vault Minerals (VAU)

The gold miner delivered full year 2025 results that validate its merger, while showcasing a robust earnings foundation, pristine balance sheet and substantial share buyback program of up to 10 per cent of issued shares. As restrictive hedges expire amid low risk expansion progressing at the King of the Hills mine, Vault is positioned for enhanced spot gold exposure, improving margins and increasing cash generation. We anticipate a sustained upward re-rating as markets adjust to persistently higher gold prices. We revise earnings and cash flow projections upwards.

BUY – Stockland (SGP)

This diversified property group delivered full year 2025 results at the upper end of guidance, driven by robust residential settlements and disciplined strategic execution. The company generates resilient rental-backed income complemented by embedded growth opportunities via its master-planned communities and land lease platform. Conservative gearing, strong liquidity and support from declining interest rates leave Stockland well positioned for continued earnings growth and valuation expansion. The new data centre partnership with EdgeConneX presents growth options.

HOLD RECOMMENDATIONS

HOLD – Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) 

The global wine giant reported a solid performance in full year 2025, featuring healthy profit growth and increased dividends, which was underpinned by its luxury portfolio and the strategic acquisition of DAOU Vineyards. The Penfolds brand remains the crown jewel, and current valuations appear reasonable. However, near term momentum faces headwinds from softer demand in the mid-range wine segment. The capital return policy remains attractive, and we have confidence in the incoming management team. Current pricing presents a balanced risk-reward proposition and we remain holders.

HOLD – Praemium (PPS)

PPS provides an investment platform to enable financial advisers to manage client accounts. The company delivered impressive earnings growth, margin expansion and funds under administration on full year 2025, benefiting from strong adoption of its new Spectrum platform. The company is strategically and ideally positioned within the rapidly evolving wealth management sector, focusing on high net worth clients and continuous platform innovation. Nevertheless, intensifying competitive pressures and ongoing legacy client attrition limit our bullishness at this time.

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

SELL – Nufarm (NUF)

Nufarm is a global crop protection and seed technologies company. The company warrants caution given its elevated debt burden. In a recent update, the company expects net debt to range between $850 million and $925 million at September 30, 2025. Further debt reduction is planned. Earnings remain highly volatile, while subdued fish oil pricing continues to present challenges. A strategic review of the seed technologies division is progressing. Underlying EBITDA in the seed technologies division in the second half of fiscal year 2025 is expected to be about $20 million below the prior corresponding period. This is one we are avoiding for now. The shares have fallen from $4.02 on May 20 to trade at $2.39 on September 18.

SELL – ASX Limited (ASX)

This Australian financial markets operator has been dogged by system failures and compliance issues. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) launched an inquiry in June  in relation to ASX governance, capability and risk management frameworks and practices across the group. The company has forecast total expense growth of between 14 per cent and 19 per cent in fiscal year 2026. It includes operating expenses of between $25 million and $35 million related to the ASIC inquiry. ASX posted a statutory net profit after tax of $502.6 million in full year 2025, up 6 per cent on the prior corresponding period. However, total expenses of $460.3 million were up 7.2 per cent. Given a relatively elevated valuation, investors may want to consider cashing in some gains.

Don’t Buy Just Yet

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